SOTS 2nd Hour: Fed Governor Waller, Canada’s International Trade Minister, and Trump’s Treasury Pick Before The Senate 1/16/25
Jan 16, 2025
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Fed Governor Chris Waller shares insights on inflation trends and hints at potential interest rate cuts on the horizon. He emphasizes December's CPI data aligning with the Fed's inflation target. Canadian Minister of International Trade Mary Ng counters President Trump's tariff threats, stressing their negative impact on American consumers and businesses. The conversation highlights the importance of collaboration in trade negotiations to support economic growth and stability in U.S.-Canada relations.
Fed Governor Waller indicated that potential rate cuts could be on the horizon, driven by favorable inflation data.
Canada's International Trade Minister expressed concerns over Trump's tariff threats, emphasizing their potential impact on consumers.
The mixed performance in the stock market highlights stability in financial sectors while technology stocks face downward pressure.
Deep dives
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Stock Market Performance Overview
The stock market is experiencing slight downward pressure, with the S&P 500 index showing a minor decline. Financial sectors, however, like Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, are demonstrating strength due to positive earnings reports, indicating good performance in areas like investment banking. On the other hand, technology stocks, including major players like Tesla and Meta, are underperforming, impacting overall market sentiment. This mixed performance underscores a broader trend where some sectors thrive while others face challenges.
Economic Data Insights
Recent economic data regarding business inventories in November indicates a minimal increase, aligning with expectations but highlighting a generally stable environment. This improvement is particularly notable as it contrasts with the negative figures from the previous year, suggesting a healthier inventory landscape. Furthermore, the construction sector's sentiment reflects optimism due to an evolving regulatory environment, despite concerns about rising costs for materials. The overall sentiment, while positive, remains cautious amid fluctuating interest rate expectations.
Federal Reserve's Stance on Inflation
The Federal Reserve's recent comments reveal an optimistic outlook on inflation, suggesting potential rate cuts could occur within the first half of the upcoming year. This optimism is propelled by a consistent trend of declining core inflation rates, which the Fed has closely monitored. However, there's acknowledgment of the possible fluctuations that could arise from external shocks, impacting inflation progress. The Fed remains committed to assessing upcoming data before making definitive policy changes, stressing the need for continued improvement.
Labor Market Analysis
The current labor market shows resilience, with recent jobs reports indicating stability rather than overheating, despite mixed evaluations from analysts. While there has been a notable increase in job creation, this is seen as a recovery from prior low figures, rather than a surge in employment. Factors such as hiring rates, wage growth, and other employment indicators suggest a consistent, sustainable labor market being shaped by the existing economic policy. It remains crucial to monitor these dynamics to anticipate future shifts in employment and economic growth.
Carl Quintanilla, Sara Eisen and David Faber broke the latest for stocks after another busy morning of data and earnings – plus the Senate Finance Committee’s Confirmation Hearing for Trump’s Treasury pick Scott Bessent.
To start the hour: Fed Governor Waller joined the team to breakdown recent inflation data, telling Sara that rate cuts ARE possible in the next few months. He also noted that December’s CPI could mean PCE – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – would come in close to the Fed's target for December.
Also in focus: Trump’s tariff threats towards Canada, and what they would mean for consumers. Canada’s Minister of International Trade not mincing words with the team at Post 9 this hour.
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