Ep. 24: Survive to '25: An Economist's View of the CRE Industry - Sabina Reeves - Chief Economist at CBRE
Nov 7, 2023
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Sabina Reeves, Chief Economist & Head of Insights & Intelligence for CBRE Investment Management, discusses the impact of AI in the commercial real estate industry, geopolitical issues affecting CRE, demographic shifts, macroeconomic environments, US consumer debt, trends in asset classes, and the future of CRE and infrastructure technology.
Geopolitical shifts and volatility in capital movement are major influences on real estate markets globally.
Understanding monetary policy changes, such as interest rates and inflation, is crucial for real estate investment decisions.
Office space faces challenges due to remote working trends, while the retail sector offers potential opportunities for high-performing properties that adapt to market challenges.
Deep dives
Geopolitical, monetary, and technological shifts impacting real estate markets
The podcast episode discusses three major generational shifts influencing real estate markets worldwide. The first shift is geopolitical, with the fall of globalization and increasing volatility in capital movement. The second shift is a monetary regime change, as central banks transition from loose to tighter monetary policies, affecting real estate prices. The third shift relates to the impact of technology on the built environment, particularly in sectors like retail and office space. These shifts create risks and opportunities for real estate investment managers and operators in the current and upcoming market cycles.
Changes in global macro environment affecting direct and listed real estate markets
The podcast explores how the global macro environment is influencing direct and listed real estate markets globally. It emphasizes the impact of the geopolitical shifts, such as trade tensions and volatility, on real estate investments. Additionally, the discussion highlights the importance of understanding monetary policy changes, especially interest rates and inflation, in relation to real estate prices. Lastly, the role of technology and its effects on different sectors, including retail and office space, is examined as a significant consideration for real estate investment decisions.
Differentiation of asset classes in the US market
The podcast provides insights into the various asset classes in the US market. It highlights the challenges faced by office space due to remote working trends and the need for innovative approaches to repurpose outdated office stock. The discussion also mentions the potential opportunities in the retail sector, with a focus on high-performing retail properties that have adapted to market challenges. Additionally, the analysis emphasizes the attractiveness of residential real estate, driven by demographic trends and the demand for professionally managed housing. Lastly, the logistics sector is discussed, emphasizing the need for high-quality assets and the impact of technological disruptions in the industry.
The Outlook for US Interest Rates and Credit
The speaker discusses the outlook for US interest rates, predicting them to stay in the 4.5% to 5% range for the first half of next year. They emphasize that the new normal for interest rates will be similar to the 2000s, with rates around fourish, real rates around oneish, and inflation around threeish, highlighting the importance of adjusting investment strategies to this new environment.
US Economic Growth and Consumer Debt
The podcast episode discusses the strong quarter-over-quarter GDP growth in the US and the underlying strength in the labor market. Despite concerns about rising consumer debt, the speaker believes that the current strength in consumer spending is primarily driven by the cash-driven economy of the boomer generation. They also discuss the possibility of a future recession and the potential for the Federal Reserve to respond with monetary policy measures like rate cuts.
Sabina Reeves is Chief Economist & Head of Insights & Intelligence for CBRE Investment Management. She is responsible for the firm’s 30-member real assets research team and has a specific role in selecting the economic scenarios and macro risk assessments that power the firm’s proprietary real assets forecasts. In addition, Sabina has executive responsibility for the firm’s 20-member Analytics and Risk Measurement team.