Multipolarity

Once Shy Twice Bitten, Domino Theory Revisited, The Ascent of Musk

Aug 15, 2024

Polling predictions may be missing the mark as the 'Shy Trump Effect' comes into play ahead of the U.S. elections. Meanwhile, Southeast Asia sees a geopolitical shift as Malaysia aligns with China amid rising anti-American sentiment. The clash between Elon Musk and the EU highlights the growing tensions surrounding content regulation and free speech on social media. With trade disputes brewing, questions arise about the EU's dependence on U.S. tech and its impact on future economic strategies.

53:00

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Quick takeaways

Polling data suggesting Kamala Harris's lead may underestimate Trump's support due to the persistent 'shy Trump effect' phenomenon.

Geopolitical shifts in Southeast Asia indicate Malaysia and Indonesia's increasing alignment with China, challenging traditional U.S. influence in the region.

Deep dives

The Shy Trump Effect in Polling

Polling data in the U.S. presents a misleading picture regarding Kamala Harris's electoral prospects, primarily due to the phenomenon known as the 'shy Trump effect.' Historically, Donald Trump has consistently outperformed his polling numbers on election day, sometimes by significant margins. The shy Trump voters, often married middle-aged men, may not disclose their support for Trump due to fear of social backlash. This phenomenon suggests that current polls showing Harris ahead may not accurately reflect potential election outcomes, as it could underestimate Trump's actual voter turnout.

Intro

2min

Understanding the 'Shy Trump Effect'

14min

Analyzing Prediction Markets and Political Polarization

4min

Malaysia's Geopolitical Shift: Embracing China

17min

EU vs Elon Musk: The Disinformation Dilemma

12min

EU-US Trade Tensions and the Digital Dependency Dilemma

3min

Kamala Harris is ahead in six key swing states - according to several major polls. All of which are categorically wrong.

Could the ghost of the Shy Trumper be about to smite the Dems for the third election running? And why are the usual media suspects pretending it isn’t a thing, never has been, never could be?

Meanwhile, in Malaysia and Indonesia, a new domino theory is starting to stack up. In the world of friendshoring and belt-and-road, the Pacific rim was always going to be the key prize - and China is gaining the upper hand.

Finally, Twitter-X is being pitched into a classic royale — between the mobile forces of capital and the fixed forces of national politics.

Not content with fighting a flame war against Keir Starmer, Elon Musk now being set upon by Thierry Breton - Europe’s information commissioner. Which is like being savaged by not one dead sheep, but two.

In the most mobile industry in the world, thirty years of globalisation theory suggests there can be only one winner. One look at Musk’s meme game says he could still flub it.

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Be excellent to each other, and -

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