ARK's Tesla Valuation model is discussed by Tasha Keeney and Daniel Maguire. They analyze the impact of autonomous driving on Tesla's value and the potential shift towards recurring revenue with a RoboTaxi service. The discussion includes comparisons with competitors, challenges in implementation, and the influence of ride-hailing services on car ownership trends.
Tesla's value driven by autonomous driving technology to constitute 90%, transitioning to recurring revenue model.
FSD advancements key for Tesla's growth, facing model validation bottleneck despite accelerating progress.
Deep dives
Tesla's Transition to a RoboTaxi Service
Tesla is expected to launch a robotaxi service, with autonomous driving predicted to constitute close to 90% of Tesla's value. The shift to a recurring revenue model from vehicle sales is anticipated to boost margins significantly. AI developments and advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology have influenced Tesla's updated model predictions, enhancing confidence in the company's ability to commercialize robo-taxis.
Advancements in Full Self-Driving Technology
Tesla's progress in FSD technology includes transitioning to an end-to-end AI model and overcoming compute constraints. Recent updates, like version 12.4, removing steering wheel nag, and improved performance metrics, showcase Tesla's accelerating progress. The bottleneck has shifted to model validation due to the success of Tesla's highly performant AI models, leveraging a vast fleet for validation.
Challenges and Potential of Tesla's RoboTaxi Network
Tesla's RoboTaxi network aims to optimize vehicle utilization and generate income for owners during idle times. Wireless charging technologies and a human operator network are being considered to support the network's operations. While addressing short-term challenges like user adoption and navigating market disruptions, Tesla's long-term vision includes the transition from individual car ownership to shared mobility services.
Curious to hear our take on Tesla? This week, Autonomous Technology and Robotics Director of Research Sam Korus and Associate Portfolio Manager Nick Grous are joined by ARK Director of Investment Analysis & Institutional Strategies Tasha Keeney and ARK Research Associate Daniel Maguire to discuss ARK's latest Tesla valuation model.
If you know ARK, then you probably know about our long-term research projections, like estimating where we will be 5-10 years from now! But just because we are long-term investors, doesn’t mean we don’t have strong views and opinions on breaking news. In fact, we discuss and debate this every day. So now we’re sharing some of these internal discussions with you in our new video series, “The Brainstorm”, a co-production from ARK and Public.com. Tune in every week as we react to the latest in innovation. Here and there we’ll be joined by special guests, but ultimately this is our chance to join the conversation and share ARK’s quick takes on what’s going on in tech today.
Key Points From This Episode:
Discussion around ARK's Tesla valuation model
For more updates on Public.com:
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YouTube: @publicinvest
Twitter: https://twitter.com/public
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