The Jewish Vote in Pennsylvania: What You Need to Know

Oct 31, 2024

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As election day nears, Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, are zeroing in on Pennsylvania, which has the largest Jewish community among the battleground states. Aaron Troodler, editor of the Philadelphia Jewish Exponent, breaks down what’s influencing Jewish voter sentiment in Pennsylvania, from economic and social issues to the U.S.-Israel relationship amid rising antisemitism and Israel’s defensive war against Iran-backed Hamas and Hezbollah.

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Transcript of Conversation with Aaron Troodler:

Manya Brachear Pashman:

It's the home stretch leading up to election day for the presidential campaigns of Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris. And both campaigns see Jewish voters in seven swing states as key to a potential victory. These seven swing states are swarming with canvassers, knocking on doors, handing out literature and engaging undecided voters in critical conversations.

Joining us for a critical conversation about the Jewish vote in one of those swing states is Aaron Troodler, editor of The Philadelphia Exponent and The Washington Jewish Week.

Aaron, welcome to People of the Pod.

Aaron Troodler:

Thank you, Manya, it's a pleasure to be here.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

Aaron, you live in the Philadelphia area and have your finger on the political pulse there. Everyone's talking about the impact of Pennsylvania's voters. What makes Pennsylvania so key?

Aaron Troodler:

So I think they're going to have a very significant influence. There are a lot of people saying these days that the path to the presidency runs through Pennsylvania, and I do think that there's a degree of truth to that.

But in fact, I believe that the path to the presidency may very well run through the Jewish community, not just in Pennsylvania, but more specifically, in the greater Philadelphia area.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

How much of an influence are they going to have in this election?

Aaron Troodler:

Ballpark, the Jewish population in Pennsylvania is estimated somewhere between 400,000, a little bit north of that figure. Of that 400,000 and change, it's estimated that approximately 300,000 or so are of voting age. And when you take into account that in 2020, Joe Biden beat then-President Donald Trump only by about 80,000 votes cast in Pennsylvania.

And then, if you look back to 2016, Donald Trump won by only about 44,000 votes. We're talking about very slim margins here, and the outsized influence of the greater Jewish community is really going to shine through in this election.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

Now, are you talking about Philadelphia city proper, or suburban Philadelphia? Is there a difference in how the two vote?

Aaron Troodler:

Great question, Manya, focusing primarily on suburban Pennsylvania. You have, for example, in 2019, the Jewish Federation of Greater Philadelphia–and I know this goes back five years, but it's the most recent data we have–did a population study, a community profile. And they looked at basically five counties, give or take, including Philadelphia County, which includes the city, but also 4 suburban counties: Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery.

And approximately at that point– again, dating back five years–but there are approximately 195,000 Jewish households at the time. And that number has grown over the past several years. I won't be able to really quantify it, because we don't have the actual data, but it's a significant number.

And you know, when you take into account that Pennsylvania's Fourth Congressional District, which is represented by Madeleine Dean, it's mostly Montgomery County, which is suburban Philadelphia County. It's got the largest Jewish population in the state, in terms of congressional districts. It's very significant.

And then the second largest is Pennsylvania's first congressional district, which is represented by Brian Fitzpatrick. And again, there are about 40,000 Jewish adults in that district. 54,000 or so, give or take, in the Montgomery County area. We're talking about big numbers.

And I think what's happening now is just by virtue of where we are as a Jewish community, whether it be antisemitism, and being very cognizant of the frightening rise of antisemitism, whether it be on college campuses, city streets, social media platforms. People are very mindful of that, and rightfully so.

And then when you throw into the equation the current situation involving Israel and the reverberations felt around the world just resulting from the Israel-Hamas war post-October 7, the Jewish community, I think, is mobilized now, perhaps even more than ever, to make their voices heard. And to do that, they would be going and voting and making their voices heard through their choices in the election.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

You just mentioned the rise of antisemitism. What issues are guiding the Jewish vote? Because I know in years past, concerns about the economy have really steered the Jewish vote. Is that still true in the 2024 election?

Aaron Troodler:

It's an interesting point you raise Manya, because I think historically, the Jewish community, and I'm over-generalizing by saying the Jewish community. Obviously, it’s comprised of several denominations who historically have had potentially different political leanings. But I think a lot of the domestic issues, whether it be the economy, reproductive rights, taxes, immigration, I mean, I think all these things are on people's radar screens.

However, I think there is a particular emphasis now on Israel. I think that is front and center. I know historically in the Orthodox community, that has been the case. I think that has carried over to the conservative community, the reform community, other communities. And I think the survival of the Jewish state and the health and strength of the US-Israel relationship is paramount to Jewish voters. Not to the exclusion of the other issues that we're talking about on the domestic front.

But I think people are viewing this election through a different lens, just by virtue of the circumstances that we're discussing, that our brethren in Israel are facing. And I think that is really informing people's votes, whether it be for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. And that's a whole other conversation we could have, but I think that that really is front and center, maybe not the sole factor, but most certainly a primary factor.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

So how does that translate? I mean, many believe that the Biden administration has been quite supportive of Israel. Others believe it has not been supportive enough.

Aaron Troodler:

Right. Well, I think the answer depends on who you ask. I think there is a very strong case to be made that the Biden administration and Kamala Harris was obviously a pivotal part of that administration, has been supportive of Israel, and I think there's a lot of conversation that centers around President Biden's response and reaction to October 7, particularly in the immediate aftermath of the Hamas attacks, and how he handled it at that time. I think on the other side of the equation you have people pointing to Donald Trump's presidency and saying, Hey, he perhaps might be the best president that the Jewish community, slash Israel, has ever had, just by virtue of some of the things he did while he was in office.

I think this is all leading to a very spirited debate, a very robust conversation about people who feel very passionate, you know, A or B. And I don't know that there's all that much consensus. I think people that are supportive of Kamala Harris are adamant and positive that she will be best for Israel. And conversely, people who are on the other side of the coin and feel that Donald Trump is their chosen candidate are making the same choice for Donald Trump.

So I don't know that there's a particular answer to that question, but I do firmly believe that that has become a defining issue for the Jewish community. And it's just remarkable to me that people, perhaps I'm over generalizing, you know, 50% of the population is saying, you know, she is absolutely, unquestionably, the best friend that we've had and will have, and then you have the same people saying similar things about Donald Trump.

So it's hard to quantify, but I do think that it has really, really become pervasive, meaning the notion of Israel and the central role that is playing this election, it's absolutely pivotal. And people are, I think, are really making their choices on who to support based on their assessment of those issues.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

Just to clarify, you said the same people are saying that about Trump. You meant the same percentage of people, right?

Aaron Troddler:

Correct, give or take. The Jewish Democratic Council of America (JDCA) has done a poll, and they found, you know, over 70% of the Jewish community is supporting Kamala Harris, as opposed to 20-25% for Donald Trump. You have polls, you have data from the Republican Jewish Coalition that shows that half the voters are supporting Donald Trump. These figures are bouncing around. I mean, obviously we've seen in the past polls definitely have value to them, but I think the real test, the real result, won't be really known until election day.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

You mentioned denominational differences, but what about generational differences? Are younger Jewish voters leaning toward a particular candidate, or toward particular issues that are different than the ones that concern older voters?

Aaron Troodler:

Great question. I'm personally not seeing it. I have young adult children, let's call them, who are invested in terms of who they're voting for. You have people that I encounter that are on the opposite end of the spectrum, perhaps in their golden years, who are very opinionated in terms of who they want to vote for.

I think what's, you know, an interesting thing here, and again, it’s not really, I don't know if it's quantifiable by denomination. But I think another thing that is important to mention, Manya, is, you still have, I know we're only several days prior to election day. There's still a healthy amount of people that are, I think, truly undecided. I think a lot of people, particularly in the Jewish community, that I've spoken with and encountered, are really torn.

In Pennsylvania we are getting an absolute barrage of campaign mail, TV ads, canvassers knocking on doors. There's a lot of that, particularly in the Philadelphia suburbs, and a good amount of those, again, I know they're targeting the Jewish community, focus on Israel and antisemitism. And you look at a piece of mail for one particular candidate, and it makes it sound like the other one is the devil.

And then flip the coin and it's the opposite for the other candidate. I think people are really trying to cut through the noise and get to the heart of the matter and make their own assessment. You can't really focus on the demographics in terms of age and whatnot.

I think it's an across the board issue that people are focusing on. The people who are pro-Trump are pro-Trump, the people who are pro-Harris are pro-Harris, and then you have this whole sliver in the middle that I think are truly undecided. Even with the election looming large.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

Is that just because they're getting conflicting messages, and they're just easily swayed one way or the other, and therefore they're torn, or are they waiting for something? Are they waiting for some deciding factor to reveal itself?

Aaron Troodler:

I'm actually not sure if it's either. I don't know that they're waiting for something per se, because if they are, that quote, unquote thing may never come and they have to make a determination. I do feel that there are some in the Jewish community, and I think the Harris campaign has acknowledged this in events that they've had featuring the Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, who obviously is Jewish, who would become the first Jewish first spouse.

But there's been an acknowledgement by renowned and well known surrogates of the Harris campaign that there are some reservations in the Jewish community. They're not giving credence to those hesitations that people might have, in terms of Kamala Harris and her position on Israel, or what that might look like. They're just acknowledging that it's there, and they recognize that they have to speak to that issue.

I think on the flip side of the coin, you have people who are looking at Donald Trump, and say, oh he moved the embassy to Jerusalem, and he recognized Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and he said that the settlements in the West Bank are not illegal, you know, per se under international law. And people are looking at those and they say, Wow, he did some great stuff.

And then those same people may look at Donald Trump as a candidate and say, Is he the best person for our country? And that's a determination that they're trying to make, and I think are having a lot of trouble doing so just because of the different packed factors that are kind of pulling and tugging at them in different directions.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

I want to go back to the Israel-Hamas war. What about that war are people thinking about when it comes to supporting a candidate? In other words, are they looking at the 101 hostages that are still in captivity, and what the candidates are saying, or how they're treating that situation? Or are they looking at humanitarian aid issues when it comes to Gaza? What are they looking at?

Aaron Troodler:

Manya, I think they're looking at all of that, and I think that's all factoring into the equation and the decision making process. And this is where I believe the vice president might be at a little bit of a disadvantage, because she's a prominent member of the current administration, whereas Donald Trump is no longer the president at the moment.

And so they're looking at actions of the administration and parsing each move and each statement. And whether or not that moves the needle, I don't know. But I do think that she has a harder hurdle to overcome vis a vis those issues, because people are really looking at statements that she's made, whether it be about the humanitarian aid that you referred to reaching Gaza and the need for that to happen. People are looking to statements that the President, perhaps, has made relative to Israel and their response.

And on and off over the past year, there have been a number of times when, reportedly, the US has cautioned Israel or advised Israel not to proceed down a certain path. There's been talk about weapon shipments and delays and stuff of that nature. And I think all of those are issues that Kamala Harris has to contend with, just by virtue of association.

And I think there's a lot of folks in the community saying, you know, what would a Harris presidency look like? You know, we know what a Trump presidency looks like vis a vis Israel. What would the Harris presidency look like?

I will say, you know, the President, the Vice President, has seemingly been very supportive of Israel on the issue of antisemitism. Obviously, the National Strategy to Counter Antisemitism that was unveiled by this current administration was heralded by people as a very necessary move. And I know, obviously the Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, was intimately involved in that as well.

All those things, I think, are factoring into people's decision making process. It's a very complicated decision for many people. And I think that's really something that the Vice President is, I think trying to work through. How does she carve out her own path, and what does that path look like?

Manya Brachear Pashman:

How influential is Pennsylvania's Jewish Governor Josh Shapiro in this race?

Aaron Troodler:

So the saga of Josh Shapiro is obviously well known at this point. He's a governor who wears his Judaism on his sleeve, very proud of it. Will often quote passages relating to Jewish thought. He talks openly about his Shabbat observances and celebrations with his family. And obviously he was seemingly, reportedly, on the cusp of the vice presidency.

I think what's interesting about Josh Shapiro, aside from his religion, is that he's universally well liked, let's call it. I think his appeal throughout Pennsylvania, it does transcend party lines in many places, just by virtue of his approach to government, his commitment to bipartisanship, and how he's been as a governor. I think there's a lot of appeal.

I think the fact that he's become a primary surrogate for the Harris campaign across the country, quite frankly, but more particularly in Pennsylvania. I think people look at that, I think there's certainly a segment of the population that was definitely holding out hope that he might end up as the Vice President of the United States. But I think that you know his willingness to go out on the trail and to and to stump for Kamala Harris and to try and speak about her bona fides as a candidate, and her strengths and what she could do for the country and her vision.

I think people are taking note of that, particularly the Jewish community. Whether that will sway everybody to a particular candidate, I don't know. But I definitely do know that people are taking notice of it because people are speaking about it in a favorable way.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

What is he saying when he stumps for her? What is he saying to get out all those voters?

Aaron Troodler:

Well, he's trying to paint her as basically, not just the best choice, but the only choice. Obviously, he, I guess it's no secret. I don't think he's really a fan of Donald Trump, and I don't think he pulls any punches when it comes to that regard. But I think in Josh Shapiro's mind, the governor really firmly believes that the Vice President is the best person to lead this country forward.

And I think when you when you factor in all the issues, for example, we talked about domestic issues at the outset of the conversation, when you look at all those issues, and you don't only make it about Israel, there's a thought that perhaps Kamala Harris is that person, and that's the message that Josh Shapiro’s trying to convey.

You know, obviously Trump supporters look at that and shake their heads, because they don't buy into that. But I think in terms of the case that he's trying to make to the voters, particularly to Jewish voters, it is a compelling case, because he's a compelling messenger.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

You talked about canvassers being all over Pennsylvania, especially the greater Philadelphia area. Can you paint a scene for our listeners? I mean, do you see teams of people walking the streets? Have people knocked on your doors, rung your doorbell? Tell me what kind of things you're seeing. What you see day to day in Greater Philadelphia.

Aaron Troodler:

I think I can probably measure the amount of canvassers by the number of door hangers that have been left on my front door over the past several months. There's a huge effort. You have people coming from different states. All descending on Pennsylvania. And there is a particular emphasis on the Jewish community, particularly in suburban Philadelphia.

I was covering an event for the Philadelphia Jewish Exponent a number of weeks ago, where Doug Emhoff came and was the featured speaker at a Get Out The Jewish [Vote] event in a Philadelphia suburb. Ben Stiller was there, the well known actor. Senator Ben Cardin, who is the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, came up from Maryland. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the congresswoman from Florida, was there.

It's a full blown effort on the part of both campaigns to try and cultivate the Jewish vote, try to generate more Jewish support. Both sides of the coin. I think you know, the Republican Jewish Coalition has put a very significant emphasis on this election, whether it be through ads, whether it be through surrogates, whether it be through the canvassers, they're everywhere.

And I think I think it's good. I think it's not only does it underscore the importance of Philadelphia's Jewish community in in an election that literally has national implications, but it enables people. When somebody knocks on your door, if you answer the door, you can engage in a dialogue. Obviously they are slanted to a particular candidate, whether it be Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, and that's fine, but it gives voters who perhaps are still undecided at this point the opportunity to have a conversation with the folks who are knocking on their doors about the issues that are important to them.

But I think just by virtue of the sheer number of canvassers who have been kind of traversing our neighborhoods over the past several weeks, I think it's indicative of the outsized role that Philadelphia's Jewish community’s playing in the presidential election.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

You mentioned Governor Shapiro is kind of a surrogate for the Harris-Walz campaign. Does the Trump campaign have a surrogate in Pennsylvania or in the Philadelphia area?

Aaron Troodler:

So they have people who are coming around. There's Peter Deutsch, who's a former congressman from Florida, who's a democratic congressman from Florida, came up to not just Pennsylvania, but the greater Philadelphia area, in particular, to spend several weeks. I know he was here over the Sukkot holiday. You know, they are bringing folks in because they're trying to make the case to people that look, you know, when it comes to the issues that you, the Jewish community, cares about, Donald Trump's your man.

And they are doing that, and they're trying to do it in a way that will resonate with people. And we mentioned some high profile people on the Democratic side. You know there are people on the Republican side, whether it's Congressman Deutsch, other people are coming in. The RJC has been very active in the community recently.

And in addition to official campaign surrogates, you know you have conversations happening in synagogues, you know, community institutions, where regular folks are conversing with one another. So each campaign, in addition to the, let's call them the official surrogates, you have these armies of unofficial surrogates who are talking with one another and trying to convince their peers to vote for a particular candidate.

And with all the holidays that we just had on the Jewish calendar, spent a lot of time in shul, in the synagogue, and there’s a lot of folks talking about the presidential election. And I'll tell you, quite frankly, there's no consensus. There are people that are absolutely pro-Trump, and they're people that are absolutely pro-Harris. And I think those folks are trying to impart to what's called the undecided people, their feelings about the campaign and their particular candidates.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

I do want to clarify for listeners, Peter Deutsch should not be confused with Ted Deutch, AJC CEO, who has not been in Pennsylvania canvassing as a surrogate for either candidate. It's a different Deutsch.

But what about rabbis? How involved are rabbis getting into this campaign? How involved have they been in these conversations?

Aaron Troodler:

So it's interesting. Whenever you broach the topic of politics from the pulpit, it becomes very tricky. Obviously, there’s 501(c)(3) status considerations and stuff of that nature that I think rabbis are always mindful of. So what they talk about from the pulpit and how they talk about it is usually done very carefully and deliberately. That all being said, there's no question that maybe, behind the scenes, let's call it, rabbis, have very distinct opinions about this.

How that will sway congregants in their respective congregations, it's hard to know. But I do think, I think because rabbis have spent so much time over the past year, post-October 7, talking about these issues of Israel's security and survival and the things that we need to do to help Israel, this is just another step in that process. Obviously, the next President of the United States is going to play a pivotal role in Israel's future and Israel's security.

The relationship between the US and Israel is paramount, and Israel depends heavily on the United States, whether it be for the military aid, strategic aid and cooperation. And on the other side of the coin, the United States relies on Israel for many national and security considerations.

But I think because rabbis have spent so much time talking about that stuff, it's top of mind for everybody. It's at the forefront of all of our minds. And whether or not they get up from the pulpit and endorse a particular candidate, I’m not sure that's going to happen in most situations, but there's no question that rabbis are trying to convey to their congregants the importance of ensuring that Israel has a strong friend and ally in the White House.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

Aaron, thank you so much for joining us and shedding a little light on what's going on in your neck of the woods.

Aaron Troodler:

Of course Manya, thank you so much for having me. It was a pleasure chatting with you.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

If you missed last week's episode, be sure to tune in for a conversation with AJC Jerusalem Director Lt. Col. Avital Leibovich, and AJC Chief Policy and Political Affairs Officer, Jason Isaacson, about the Israeli Defense Force’s elimination of Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the October 7 terror attacks.