Schwab Network Uncertainty Spikes 10-Year Treasuries & FOMC Outlook Into January Meeting
Jan 23, 2026
Collin Martin, Head of Fixed Income Research and Strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, provides market commentary and analysis. He explains the recent breakout in 10-year Treasury yields. He discusses sticky inflation, resilient economic indicators, and rising term premium tied to geopolitical uncertainty. He also covers global yield shifts, potential foreign flows, and the Fed meeting outlook.
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10‑Year Yield Breakout Explained
- The 10-year Treasury finally broke above its months-long 4.0–4.2% range and neared 4.3% earlier in the week.
- Collin Martin links the move to sticky inflation, resilient GDP, and a rising term premium from geopolitical and tariff uncertainty.
Term Premium Rising With Global Uncertainty
- Collin Martin says rising term premium reflects heightened uncertainty from Davos comments, Greenland and tariff worries.
- He warns that global yield spikes, notably in Japan and Europe, can pull foreign capital away and lift U.S. long yields.
Volatility Likely, But Long Yields May Stay Elevated
- Martin expects more volatility rather than a clean trend and says the MOVE index is unusually depressed right now.
- He believes long-term yields may stay range-bound because inflation remains a bit too sticky to push yields much lower.