In Moscow's Shadows 147: The Reshuffle, Or Change To Preserve Things As They Are
May 19, 2024
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Exploring the recent Russian government reshuffle, analyzing key changes in positions and the broader political implications. Delving into the appointment of officials and how it reflects broader political strategies. Addressing corruption and mismanagement within the defense ministry, and the potential for significant changes. Speculating on succession and power dynamics within the Russian government, focusing on generational shifts and preparing for enduring conflict with the West.
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Quick takeaways
Reshuffle aims to create a militarized state under Putin's rule through new leaders.
Belosov appointed to address corruption and enhance resource efficiency in Defense Ministry.
Potential impact of new Chief of General Staff appointment on military strategies.
Deep dives
Defense Ministry Drama: Shoygu's Departure and Belosov's Entry
The reshuffle in the Russian federal government includes the departure of long-serving Defense Minister Shoygu and the entrance of Andre Belosov as his replacement. Shoygu, once popular, faced criticism for his wartime leadership. Belosov, an economist, brings a technocratic approach and belief in securing Russia from perceived enemies. The shift reflects a focus on economic efficiency in managing the Defense Ministry's resources.
Economic Challenges and Corruption in the Defense Sector
Belosov's appointment as Defense Minister aims to address economic challenges and combat corruption within the Defense Ministry. The ministry faces issues such as embezzlement, inefficient resource management, and procurement problems. Belosov's role includes advocating for increased funding, ensuring resource efficiency, and potentially addressing long-standing corruption issues.
Power Dynamics: Chief of the General Staff and Potential Changes
The relationship between the Defense Minister and the Chief of the General Staff, Valerie Gerasimov, plays a critical role in decision-making during wartime. Belosov's potential to appoint a new Chief of the General Staff may impact operational strategies and power dynamics within the military. Gerasimov's influence and decision-making abilities during conflicts are under scrutiny.
Shoygu's Transition to the Security Council
Shoygu's move to the Security Council is seen as a strategic shift rather than a demotion. This transition aligns with his political acumen and behind-the-scenes operational strengths. The Security Council role offers bureaucratic and political responsibilities that may suit Shoygu's skill set better, allowing him to retain influence within the system.
Generational Shifts and Future Leadership Preparation
The reshuffle reflects a broader strategy of cultivating a new generation of political leaders in Russia. Movement of younger, efficient governors and ministers highlights a shift towards preparing for long-term political continuity. The emphasis on generational balance and loyalty aims to ensure a stable and controlled political landscape in anticipation of a prolonged Putin presidency.
There has been an unexpectedly interesting and extensive reshuffle of the Russian government, but what does it mean? I suggest it is about creating an enduring militarised, mobilised state, preserving Putin's rule not least through elevating a new generation of leaders and preparing to play generations against each other.
Details of the 28 May Cambridge event I mentioned (including the livestream link) are here.
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