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In this thought experiment, the question is whether to take one major step or a series of random steps towards a goal in a complex and uncertain system. The worst decision would be knowingly going in the opposite direction of the goal. However, a random decision is not always a bad decision, as there are usually multiple choices that are better than the worst option. The thought experiment extends to exploring how incremental learning can make random steps less random and eventually lead to better decisions. The key insight is to consider the cost of learning before taking action versus the cost of learning after, and in software engineering, learning after the fact is often less expensive than trying to predict and plan everything in advance.