This podcast explores the rise of India's affluent class and its impact on consumption. It discusses the reasons behind their rise and potential increased spending on discretionary consumption and lifestyle upgrades. The episode also questions the biased predictions by Goldman Sachs on long-term consumption growth.
India's affluent class is expected to grow to 100 million by 2027, driving discretionary consumption and credit-based spending.
The rise of India's affluent class is leading to a shift towards premiumization in product categories, with manufacturers offering upgraded features at higher prices.
Deep dives
India's affluent class to dictate consumption activity
Goldman Sachs' report highlights that India's affluent class, currently estimated at 60 million people earning over 8 lakh rupees annually, is expected to grow to 100 million by 2027. This rise in affluence is evident in the income tax filing data, where the number of individuals declaring income over 10 lakh rupees has grown by 19% annually compared to a mere 8% overall growth in tax filings. The increase in disposable income among the affluent class is likely to drive discretionary consumption, similar to what occurred in America during the 1950s. Credit-based consumption is also on the rise, as reflected in the doubling of credit card issuance and a 2.5 times increase in credit card spending over the last four years. Companies catering to this income bracket are likely to benefit the most, as seen in the outperformance of businesses like Nestle India, Metro, and Trent.
India's rising affluent class to drive premiumization and consumption growth
As India's affluent class continues to grow, there is a shift towards premiumization in various product categories. Manufacturers are adding more features to products and selling them at higher prices, with the average selling price increasing in categories such as refrigerators and shoes. This trend supports the theory that the affluent segment is driving consumption and willing to pay more for upgraded lifestyles. However, there are some factors to consider. Goldman Sachs' report may be biased towards selling a positive narrative about India's consumption potential. Additionally, while the report suggests that the affluent segment will expand to 100 million by 2027, it's important to note that income adjustments for inflation may classify more individuals as affluent without necessarily indicating wealth growth. Furthermore, the affluent class mentioned in the report represents only 4% of India's working-age population, raising questions about the long-term sustainability of consumption growth driven primarily by a small subset of the population.
On Saturday, Goldman Sachs’ latest report called “Affluent India” went viral. Investors couldn’t stop talking about it; the Indian government handles shared it, and social media influencers went gaga over it.
In case you missed it, in today’s episode for 17th January 2024, we wanted to break down what’s in it for you.
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