Money of Mine Lithium Mayhem and Mozal Woes (Sam Berridge)
Aug 15, 2025
Sam Berridge, a Portfolio Manager at Perennial Natural Resources Trust, dives into the wild world of lithium markets and corporate maneuvers. He discusses the dramatic changes in the lithium sector, including investment strategies and government actions. Sam also unpacks South32's power challenges at Mozal and highlights Mitsubishi's bold $600 million investment in Hudbay's Copper World project. The talk stretches across energy policies, shareholder voting issues, and the financial intricacies affecting the mining landscape, shedding light on the industry's future.
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Lithium Moves Are Flow Driven
- Lithium's market moves are often inventory and flow-driven rather than structural supply shortages.
- Short positions and hedge funds can amplify rapid upside when restocking happens.
Don't Let Governments Pick Mining Winners
- Avoid governments picking winners by equity stakes in individual miners.
- Use broad measures (eg. price floors) to support an industry without discriminating between companies.
Power Contracts Are Aluminium's Lifeblood
- Electricity price and reliability are existential for large aluminium smelters.
- Losing favourable long-term power contracts can force curtailment and permanent shutdowns.