Bloomberg Surveillance
Markets Price in Trump and Netflix's Record Earnings
Jan 22, 2025
Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo, shares insights on the global macro outlook amid a potential second Trump administration. He discusses China's economic challenges, including a declining workforce and housing market, and their implications for global trade. Slok also anticipates the Fed meeting, revealing market sentiments and the uncertainties that lie ahead. He touches on the dynamic stock market landscape, highlighting Netflix's impressive growth, and the shifting priorities of millennial investors in a volatile market.
30:47
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Quick takeaways
- China's declining working-age population threatens economic stability, with potential parallels to Japan's stagnation and increasing challenges such as a deflating housing bubble.
- The U.S. economy is experiencing rising income inequality, with higher-income households benefitting from resilience while lower-income groups face significant financial pressures due to rising debt.
Deep dives
Impact of China's Declining Workforce
China's working-age population is on a downward trend, with projections estimating a reduction from around a billion to 900 million in the next decade. This demographic shift poses a significant challenge for China's economy, potentially resulting in a Japanese-style economic stagnation. With fewer workers, there will also be a decrease in tax revenues, which could exacerbate economic difficulties. Additionally, the country faces related challenges, such as a deflating housing bubble and a contentious trade environment with the U.S. and Europe.
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