MarketWatch - What Will Fall First, Mortgage Rates or Home Prices?
Sep 27, 2023
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Join MarketWatch real-estate reporter Aarthi Swaminathan and Skylar Olsen, chief economist at Zillow, as they discuss the impact of falling mortgage rates on the housing market, the effects of climate change on the Florida housing market, the concept of assumable mortgages, trade-offs in getting a mortgage, and market data including short-term rental markets.
High mortgage rates and low supply are pricing many Americans out of the housing market, leading to a slowdown in sales volumes and a decrease in new listings.
The resolution of high mortgage rates is crucial for unfreezing the housing market, as it can align monthly payments with rents, improve affordability, and incentivize sellers to put their homes on the market.
Deep dives
Housing Market Challenges due to High Mortgage Rates and Low Supply
The US housing market is facing challenges due to high mortgage rates and low supply. The high mortgage rates are making homes less affordable for buyers, as home prices are already high. Existing homeowners are also hesitant to sell and lose their low mortgage rates. This has led to a slowdown in sales volumes and a decrease in new listings. While some areas, like Austin and New Orleans, are experiencing home price declines, other places, like Boise and Seattle, are stabilizing due to low inventory. Overall, the housing market is facing a transition period with a potential impact on prices.
The Role of Mortgage Rates in Unfreezing the Housing Market
The resolution of high mortgage rates is crucial for unfreezing the housing market. The mortgage rates coming down, even to a level of around 5.5%, can align monthly payments with rents and improve affordability. This can also incentivize sellers to put their homes on the market. Time and patience are important factors in the current market, and buyers should work with good lenders to take advantage of rate drops. The stability of mortgage rates is uncertain, making it essential for buyers to make informed decisions and consider the long-term financial implications of their purchases.
Regional Variations in Home Prices
Home prices vary across different regions. While areas like Austin, New Orleans, and some parts of California are experiencing price declines, other places like Boise and Seattle are stabilizing due to a significant pullback in new listings. The inventory shortage and slower market activity are contributing to the stabilization of prices in these regions. However, only a few metropolitan areas are currently seeing price declines, while others are experiencing softer price increases compared to the pandemic boom. Overall, the housing market exhibits a mix of market clapback and softening price growth.
Challenges and Strategies for First-Time Homebuyers
First-time homebuyers are facing challenges in the current housing market. Affordability concerns and low inventory have impacted the decision-making process. Buyers should adopt a long-term perspective when purchasing a home, considering factors like future life plans and matching the home with their needs. Working with good partners, such as real estate agents and loan officers, is essential to navigate the market. Taking advantage of price stabilization and leveraging concessions from sellers can be effective strategies. It is important to remember that homebuying is a long-term financial decision, and patience is necessary to find the right opportunity.
Home prices and 7% mortgage rates are pricing many Americans out of the housing market. When will either start to fall? And where will it fall? Join MarketWatch real-estate reporter Aarthi Swaminathan and Skylar Olsen, chief economist at Zillow, to find out.
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