What could still go wrong with the Israel-Hamas cease-fire and hostage release deal?
Jan 15, 2025
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Amos Harel, Haaretz's senior security analyst, dives into the intricacies of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and hostage release deal. He discusses the potential pitfalls that could derail the agreement even after it seems finalized. Harel highlights the psychological impact on hostages and the complexities of decision-making in crisis situations. He also addresses the implications for Gaza's governance and the shifting political landscape in Israel, revealing how these dynamics could alter future diplomatic efforts.
The potential ceasefire and hostage release deal reflects a significant temporary resolution but is hindered by political tensions and past negotiation failures.
Questions about Gaza's future governance and the implications for Israel's long-term strategy are crucial to understanding the potential outcomes of the deal.
Deep dives
Hope for Ceasefire and Hostage Deal
A potential ceasefire and hostage deal between Israel and Hamas offers a glimmer of hope following over 460 days of conflict. The agreement aims to halt fighting for 42 days, during which a significant number of hostages, both living and deceased, will be returned to Israel. Additionally, Israeli troops will withdraw from specific locations in Gaza while humanitarian aid is set to increase and Palestinian prisoners will be released. The first phase prioritizes the release of vulnerable individuals such as women, children, the elderly, and ill hostages, reflecting a commitment to addressing human rights issues amidst ongoing violence.
Challenges and Political Dynamics
Ongoing negotiations between Israel and Hamas face multiple roadblocks, primarily stemming from differing demands and political tensions. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's reservations about committing to a full end to the war and the subsequent withdrawal of troops serve as significant hurdles, alongside pressures from right-wing factions within his government. Historical context highlights past failed negotiations influenced by American, Qatari, and Egyptian intermediaries, making the current political landscape particularly complex. The involvement of former President Trump, who appears to push for a resolution, adds an unexpected twist, challenging radical elements within Israeli politics who have relied on his previous support.
Uncertain Future for Gaza and Israel
The proposed deal and its possible outcomes raise critical questions about the future governance of Gaza and the relationship between Israel and Hamas. A complete withdrawal of Israeli forces is expected, yet no clear plan has emerged regarding who would control the region post-conflict, leaving residents in a precarious situation. The dilemma over Israel's long-term strategy, including potential recognition of a two-state solution, reflects a significant shift in Netanyahu's political stances influenced by external pressures. The outcome of these negotiations may not only redefine the dynamics in Gaza but could also reshape broader Middle Eastern relations, particularly between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
For the first time in over a year, a deal to free the Israeli hostages held in Gaza and end the devastating war there seems imminent. The first stage of the deal will reportedly see 33 people held captive by Hamas return to Israel and a temporary cease-fire.
But much of it is still up in the air – even after it becomes final. Many factors can sabotage the deal in its planning stages or during its implementation. Haaretz correspondent Linda Dayan spoke to Haaretz's senior security analyst Amos Harel about the hurdles that remain, the future of Gaza, the fate of the hostages and the dashed hopes of Israel's radical right wing.