ToKCast Ep 209: Rational Decision Making
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Jun 17, 2024 Exploring rational decision-making through the lenses of Karl Popper and David Deutsch, the podcast covers Bayesianism, uncertainties, and good vs. bad ideas in decision-making. It challenges traditional views on knowledge creation and delves into the mysteries of gravity, human creativity, and prediction amidst unpredictable factors.
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Prediction vs. Prophecy
- There's a key difference between knowing the future through precise calculation (prediction) and guessing based on incomplete knowledge (prophecy).
- Prophecy ignores how future knowledge creation influences choices, making those choices unpredictable.
Doomers and Solutions
- Doomers often focus on predicting problems but struggle to imagine solutions.
- Creating solutions through knowledge creation is crucial for progress and avoiding a pessimistic outlook.
Weighing Evidence
- Avoid relying solely on "weighing the evidence" when making decisions.
- Focus on finding good explanations that account for the evidence, rather than simply balancing probabilities.