Science Quickly Katrina Was Predicted: Revisiting Warning Signs 20 Years Later
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Aug 29, 2025 
Mark Fischetti, a Senior Editor at Scientific American known for his insights on disaster prediction, recounts his early warnings about New Orleans’ vulnerabilities before Hurricane Katrina struck. Andrea Thompson, also from Scientific American, discusses the evolution of hurricane preparedness in the U.S. Two decades later, they reflect on the tragic consequences of ignored scientific advice and the ongoing challenges of climate change. Together, they emphasize the importance of heeding warnings to mitigate future disasters.
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Early Warning From A Science Feature
- Mark Fischetti wrote a 2001 Scientific American piece warning New Orleans could be flooded under certain hurricane tracks and strengths.
- After Katrina hit, the New York Times found his article and thrust him into media as "the man who predicted" the disaster.
Wetland Loss Amplified Storm Surge
- New Orleans sits below sea level and relied on wetlands as a storm-surge buffer that have degraded over decades.
- Levees on the Mississippi and navigation channels disrupted sediment flows and accelerated wetland loss that increased surge vulnerability.
Build Layered Coastal Defenses
- Protect cities with layered defenses: robust hard structures plus wetland restoration for natural buffering.
- Prioritize stronger levees, gates, and coastal restoration together rather than relying on one approach alone.