Highlights

Destabilization could be the biggest setback for great power conflict, AI, bio-risk, and climate disruption.
Polarization plays a role in nearly every causal pathway leading to destabilization of the United States, and there is no indication polarization will decrease.
The United States fits the pattern of past democracies that have descended into authoritarian regimes in many key aspects.
The most recent empirical research on civil conflicts suggests the United States is in a category that has a 4% annual risk of falling into a civil conflict.
In 2022 (when this was originally written), Mike Berkowitz, ED of Democracy Funders Network and 80,000 Hours guest, believes there is 50% chance American democracy fails in the next 6 years.
For every dollar spent on depolarization efforts, there are probably at least a hundred dollars spent aggravating the culture war.
Destabilization of the United States could wipe out billions of dollars of pledged EA funds.

Note following the [...]

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Outline:

(00:07) Highlights

(01:16) Note following the assassination attempt of former President Trump

(02:45) Preface

(06:10) Acknowledgements

(06:24) Summary

(09:08) Possibility

(10:02) Big picture

(10:06) Authoritarianism

(12:57) Civil conflict

(16:50) Polarization

(20:40) How close we already came (January 6th)

(26:42) A note on the military counter argument

(28:18) Top reasons why the United States wouldn’t destabilize

(29:14) What I would have included in a longer version

(29:51) Conclusion

(31:36) Importance

(31:59) Global ramifications and great power conflict

(33:17) Artificial Intelligence and bio-risk

(33:22) Applicable to both

(34:27) Artificial Intelligence

(34:48) Accelerating climate disruption

(34:52) Authoritarianism

(35:25) Civil conflict

(36:08) Significance

(37:02) Effects on the Effective Altruism movement

(37:06) Talent

(37:29) Funds

(38:15) Plausible scenario

(39:01) Neglectedness

(40:36) Through the lens of polarization

(42:03) Tractability

(44:15) What is needed

(44:18) The broad needs

(44:46) Structural-reform needs\[80\]

(46:03) Needs for stopping polarizing forces

(46:38) Needs for Depolarizing the population

(46:58) Why it's difficult

(47:02) Structural reform

(47:36) Stopping polarizing forces

(49:01) Depolarize the population

(50:36) Where there is traction

(50:40) Ballot initiatives

(51:29) Robust federalism

(51:48) Prescription (what OP/EA could do)

(53:04) Funding and scaling existing efforts

(53:09) Create an operation focused on recruiting more funders and key non-funder partners to this effort

(54:00) Fund ballot initiative efforts and organizations

(56:15) Fund existing depolarization efforts and organizations

(56:51) Fund new organizations to fill gaps through an approach similar to the arrangement between CE and FTX for biosecurity

(57:54) Fund experiments/projects that will give us actionable information

(58:30) Miscellaneous interventions

(58:34) Preempting accelerationist events

(01:00:19) Invest in local journalism

(01:00:51) Promote sincere populist leadership in the Republican apparatus to replace culture warriors

(01:03:49) Invest in mutual aid networks

(01:04:17) Strengthening unions and preparing for a general strike

(01:05:32) My personal favorite

(01:05:36) Left-Right coalitions to run a slate of ballot-initiatives for structural reform

(01:06:49) Uncertainties (why OP/EA should do a medium-level investigation)

(01:08:21) Conclusion/call to action

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First published:
July 15th, 2024

Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/kmx3rKh2K4ANwMqpW/destabilization-of-the-united-states-the-top-x-factor-ea

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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