Talking Strategy

S1E11: Thomas Schelling: Nobel Economist Turned Nuclear Strategist with Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman

15 snips
Sep 20, 2022
Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King's College London, delves into the legacy of Thomas Schelling, a Nobel Prize-winning economist known for his innovative thinking on nuclear strategy. He explores Schelling's resistance to being labeled a game theorist and discusses how his insights, such as recognizing shared adversary interests and the dynamics of brinkmanship, reshaped military strategy. Freedman also critiques Schelling's optimism about cross-cultural signaling and examines the evolution of strategy in the context of modern crises.
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INSIGHT

Method Over Math

  • Thomas Schelling used simple two-by-two matrices to order complex strategic thought rather than relying on formal mathematical proofs.
  • He blended game-theoretic ideas with history and psychology to avoid being a prisoner of a single methodology.
INSIGHT

Competition And Cooperation Coexist

  • Schelling reconceptualised rivalry as a mix of competition and cooperation, revealing shared interests even between adversaries.
  • This shift made strategists consider the opponent's incentives and the mutual risks of escalation.
INSIGHT

Posture To Preserve Diplomacy

  • Schelling emphasised configuring forces and arms control to avoid being rushed into nuclear choices and to allow diplomacy time to work.
  • He argued the purpose of posture is to prevent cycles of preemption and preserve space for dialogue.
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