WSJ's Take On the Week Does the Weak Housing Market Signal a Coming Recession?
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Aug 17, 2025 
Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research, shares insights on the current state of the housing market, asserting it's in a recession. He discusses the implications of stagnant sales and falling prices, and how this may not necessarily drag the entire economy down with it. Dutta also examines the impact of high mortgage rates on consumer spending and the construction sector. Tune in to unravel whether the housing market's struggles signal deeper economic troubles ahead.
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Retail Buyers Are Stabilizing Markets
- Retail and individual investors now rush to "buy the dip" and consistently prop up market rallies.
- This cohort functions like past short sellers by stepping in whenever markets weaken, supporting valuations.
Rising Inventory With Flat Sales
- Existing-home sales are flat while inventory rises, producing mixed signals for prices and activity.
- High mortgage rates are keeping many buyers out, which could make rate cuts impactful for housing demand.
Construction Pipeline Is Dried Up
- Multiple housing indicators show deep weakness: single-family building permits are down over 30% and new-home sales pipelines are shrinking.
- That implies materially lower construction activity and weaker residential investment ahead.