The Science of Politics How much are polls misrepresenting Americans?
6 snips
Jun 1, 2022 In this insightful discussion, Josh Clinton, a Political Science professor at Vanderbilt University, and Amnon Cavari from Reichman University, delve into the troubling decline in poll response rates. They reveal how this trend skews public opinion representation, with Democrats more likely to participate than Republicans or Independents. They highlight that the disengaged, often less educated citizens, are missing from surveys, leading to exaggerated perceptions of polarization. The conversation emphasizes the need for refined methodologies to accurately capture the diverse American electorate.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Partisan Poll Participation Bias
- Democrats were more likely to participate in polls than Republicans or Independents in 2020.
- This partisan participation imbalance contributed to notable polling errors in the 2020 presidential election.
Response Bias Exaggerates Polarization
- Poll respondents tend to be more politically engaged and opinionated, inflating polarization measures.
- This engagement bias especially exaggerates partisan divides on issues like the economy and immigration.
Extremely Low Polling Response Rates
- Poll response rates are extremely low, around 5-6%, making samples unrepresentative.
- Even within responses, Democrats showed higher willingness than Republicans or independents to complete surveys.