Resolve Riffs Investment Podcast

Numera Analytics on the Art and Science of Global Macro Research

Aug 15, 2023

The podcast discusses the importance of a probabilistic approach in financial markets, the dynamics of inflation, investing in regional banks, potential risks and rewards, China's policy support, growth in India, impact of the dollar on the global economy, and the potential for a global order rupture.

01:30:55

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Quick takeaways

China's potential policy support and attractive valuations offer a window of opportunity for investors, despite long-term concerns.

India's near-term bets are less attractive due to expensive valuations and an overvalued rupee, but long-term prospects rely on earnings growth.

South American markets, like Brazil, provide investment opportunities with attractive valuations and potential growth, but investors should be mindful of currency risks.

Deep dives

China's Policy Support and South American Opportunities

Despite long-term concerns over China's demographics and excess housing supply, there is a 6 to 12 month window of opportunity for investors due to the market's attractive valuation and potential policy support. China aims to ensure 5% growth and may provide stimulus to boost the economy. This would benefit South America, which is intrinsically linked to China's business cycle. However, long-term prospects for China remain bearish due to demographic challenges and geopolitical risks that discourage capital transfer and limit productivity growth.

Introduction

2min

Introduction to Global Macro Research

17min

Approach to Asset Classes and Inflation Expectations

18min

The Importance of Hedges in a Portfolio

25min

Assessing Commercial Real Estate Investments

11min

Retrenchment of Regional Banks and Potential Risks and Rewards of Investing

7min

US Dollar Weakness and its Impact on Commodities

9min

Exploring the Possibility of a Global Order Rupture and Its Impact on the Dollar

3min

In this episode, we dive deep into the world of financial markets and economic models with our guest, Joaquin Kritz Lara from Numera Analytics. We explore the importance of a probabilistic approach, the role of uncertainty, the dynamics of inflation, and much more.

• The importance of a probabilistic approach in financial markets and the disregard around uncertainty

• The role of economists and their strong beliefs around how the world works

• The dynamics of inflation and its impact on financial markets

• The importance of acknowledging that you don't know the full truth and adapting priors based on new information

• The potential risks and rewards of investing in regional banks

• The impact of inflation on the valuation of assets and the potential for downturns in certain sectors

• The potential of policy support in China and its impact on the global economy

• The potential for growth in India and the challenges it faces

• The impact of the dollar on the global economy and the potential for its decline

This episode provides a deep dive into the intricacies of financial markets, economic models, and the global economy. It's a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the complexities of these topics and gaining valuable insights to navigate the uncertain financial landscape.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.