Maggie Lake Talking Markets Episode 99: Is There Too Much Greed? With Tommy Thornton.
Oct 27, 2025
In this discussion, Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry and market sentiment analyst, highlights concerning overvaluation in tech stocks like NVIDIA and AMD. He contrasts extreme bullish sentiment from his Daily Sentiment Index with the CNN Fear & Greed Index. Tommy also shares his perspective on excessive leverage risks, crowded trades, and the potential inevitability of a bear market, comparing current conditions to past market crises. Insights into short positions and energy bottlenecks for AI infrastructure add intriguing layers to their conversation.
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Episode notes
Sentiment Is A Condition, Not A Trigger
- Sentiment can remain extreme for long periods and is a condition, not an immediate trigger for reversal.
- Tommy Thornton warns sustained complacency plus leverage raises systemic risk even without a near-term catalyst.
Shallow Pullbacks Signal Unusual Market Internals
- The S&P hasn't closed below its 50-day moving average since April, showing unusually shallow pullbacks.
- Thornton compares this to past periods where weekly exhaustion signals foreshadowed larger declines.
Valuations Fueled By Announcement, Not Earnings
- Markets are overvalued at the index level while leading tech names trade at historically high multiples.
- Thornton sees valuation expansion driven by announcements and momentum rather than underlying earnings growth.