The Bid

217: How Does This Cycle of Tariff Market Volatility Compare to Historical Periods of Market Uncertainty? [April 23rd]

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Apr 23, 2025
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INSIGHT

Unprecedented Market Speed and Defense Challenges

  • The current market episode is marked by unprecedented speed and change in conditions, surprising many investors.
  • Traditional safe havens like US treasuries and high-quality tech stocks have not served as effective portfolio defenses this time.
ANECDOTE

AI Investing Data Strategy

  • Rich Mathieson shared how BlackRock used two years of earnings call transcripts and online job postings to identify companies truly investing in AI after NVIDIA's breakthrough.
  • This data-driven approach helped differentiate between firms riding the AI hype and those monetizing it effectively.
INSIGHT

Rising Recession Probability

  • Macroeconomic models currently indicate a transition from a mid-cycle to a late-cycle environment, increasing the probability of recession within 6 to 12 months.
  • However, higher-frequency data suggest no immediate cause for concern yet, warranting close ongoing monitoring.
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