Expert in global unrest and inflation, Peter Zeihan, joins Krystal and Saagar to discuss recession indicators, crypto markets, Uvalde police coverup, Buttigieg incompetence, Biden's bike fall, Assange prosecution, global unrest, and inflation. They explore the current state of inflation and the possibility of a recession, examine fluctuations, recessions, and consumer behavior, discuss soaring prices and inequality in the used car market, age and fitness concerns in politics, Julian Assange's legal battles, the role of wealthy in inflation, similarities between Biden and Carter, impact of globalization on inflation, and express gratitude with unexpected sponsor interruptions.
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Quick takeaways
The podcast discusses recession indicators and warns about potential consequences such as increased unemployment and reduced consumer sentiment.
The victory of Apple store employees in Maryland becoming the first unionized workers in Apple is highlighted, signaling hope for improved working conditions and worker representation.
A cover-up by Uvalde police and officials regarding a school shooting raises questions about their actions and potential further withholding of information.
Airline abuses, including staffing issues and price gouging, are exposed, highlighting Pete Buttigieg's inaction as Transportation Secretary to address these problems.
Deglobalization, triggered by factors like the Ukraine war and trade restrictions, disrupts global supply chains, leading to shortages and inflation in various regions with North America potentially experiencing a 10-15% drawback in trade and China facing regression in industrial capacity and living standards.
Deep dives
Summary of Podcast Episode
The podcast episode covers various topics including the economic recession, unionization in Apple stores, the Uvalde school shooting cover-up, airline abuses against consumers, and Pete Buttigieg's inaction as Transportation Secretary.
Economic recession and inflation
The podcast discusses the possibility of a recession and the current high inflation rates. Experts suggest that the Federal Reserve may need to take action, potentially leading to increased unemployment and reduced consumer sentiment.
The first unionized Apple store
The podcast highlights the historic victory of Apple store employees in Maryland as they become the first unionized workers in Apple. The decision comes after widespread anti-union campaigns by Apple management, and workers hope to improve their working conditions and gain a say in their workplace.
The Uvalde school shooting cover-up
The podcast reveals a cover-up by Uvalde police and city officials to withhold body camera footage and records related to the mass shooting at a school. The investigation exposes the failure of the police to open doors and the intentional obstruction of information, raising questions about the extent of their actions and potential further cover-ups.
Airline abuses and Pete Buttigieg's inaction
The podcast sheds light on airline abuses against consumers, such as intentional staffing issues and price gouging, impacting summer travel. Pete Buttigieg, as Transportation Secretary, has the power to address these issues but has not taken sufficient action, leading to frustration and inconvenience for travelers.
Globalization and Inflation
Globalization has led to greater diversification, volume, and lower cost of production. However, the current trend of deglobalization, driven by factors like the Ukraine war, nationalism, and trade restrictions, is disrupting the global supply chain and resulting in shortages and inflation. Different regions will be impacted to varying degrees, with North America potentially experiencing a 10-15% drawback in trade, while China, heavily reliant on imports, may face a significant regression in its industrial capacity and standard of living.
The Rise of Russia as China's Largest Oil Supplier
Russia has become China's largest supplier of oil, surpassing Saudi Arabia, due to lower prices and discount markets. However, it is worth noting that much of the oil supplied to China comes from eastern Siberia, and its production is dependent on foreign technical expertise. Furthermore, due to recent departures of skilled personnel, such as Shell and Halliburton, from Russia, the country may face challenges in maintaining oil production levels in the long term.
The Ineffectiveness of Traditional Methods in Dealing with Inflation
Inflation is driven not only by increased demand, but also by supply shocks caused by factors like the Ukraine war, disruption of global supply chains, and labor shortages due to demographic shifts. Traditional methods like raising interest rates may address demand-driven inflation, but are not effective in mitigating the impact of supply shocks. The current supply-demand imbalance poses challenges for companies, necessitating a shift away from just-in-time delivery and towards increased inventory, but this transition requires private sector adaptation rather than government intervention.
Globalization's Impact on Inflation and the Need for Private Sector Adaptation
Globalization has led to stability in demand and diversification of production. While supply chain disruptions and labor shortages are contributing to inflation, demand remains robust. Companies need to adjust their inventory management practices and build local supply chains to adapt to the new reality. The US and certain regions in North America have the advantage of favorable demographics, stable capital structures, and manufacturing capabilities, allowing for a relatively smaller drawback in trade. China, heavily dependent on foreign inputs, may face more significant challenges and a reversion to pre-industrial standards of living.
Krystal and Saagar talk about recession indicators, crypto markets, unionization efforts, Uvalde police coverup, Pete Buttigieg's incompetence, Biden's bike fall, Julian Assange prosecution, Krystal on Maher, global unrest, Biden & Jimmy Carter, and global inflation with Peter Zeihan!
