The World of Intelligence Ukraine conflict - lessons learned part one
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Aug 20, 2024 Dylan Lee Lehrke, a military conflict analyst, and James Rands, a geopolitical analyst, dive into the ongoing Ukraine conflict. They discuss the evolution of warfare tactics deployed by both Russia and Ukraine, emphasizing the critical importance of understanding an opponent's capabilities. The conversation highlights the role of open-source intelligence in military forecasting and the impact of technology on modern warfare strategies. Key insights reveal the necessity for updated training and local intelligence in today’s complex battlefields.
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Russia's Miscalculations
- Russia's invasion of Ukraine was predictable, but their execution was surprisingly poor.
- They underestimated Ukrainian resistance and failed to plan for a real war.
Open-Source Intelligence Success
- Open-source intelligence revealed Russia's military buildup before the invasion.
- Janes analysts used social media, satellite imagery, and railcar data to predict the invasion.
Open Source vs. Classified Intelligence
- Open-source analysts correctly predicted the invasion, while some classified sources did not.
- Some European countries officially stated the invasion would not happen.