In Moscow's Shadows 227: It's War! (within the emigre opposition, at least)

8 snips

Dec 14, 2025

The conversation kicks off with a critical look at the complexities surrounding a proposed demilitarized zone in Donetsk, highlighting how Rosgvardiya could undermine its purpose. The discussion shifts to the contentious topic of wartime elections, revealing the challenges faced by occupied voters. A significant focus is on the EU's €210 billion plan to freeze Russian assets, which may create future legal and financial complications. Tensions within the emigre opposition bubble to the surface during a Paris dinner spat between Garry Kasparov and Vladimir Kara-Murza, symbolizing deeper rifts.

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INSIGHT

DMZs Can Mask Military Forces

Demilitarised zones sound neat but hide operational loopholes that militarise policing and invite armour.
Mark Galeotti warns Rosgvardiya's armoured units could turn a DMZ into a Russian force projection by another name.

INSIGHT

Occupied Votes Are Legally Fraught

Referendums or elections in occupied territories create legal and moral traps because monitors and free voting are blocked.
Mark Galeotti highlights Kyiv's dilemma balancing constitutional norms with international political pressures.

INSIGHT

Freezes Don’t Mean Immediate Cash

Freezing €210bn of Russian sovereign assets locks funds but doesn't automatically create usable cash for Ukraine.
Galeotti warns legal countersuits, expropriations and lawfare could complicate or even benefit Russia indirectly.

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A demilitarised zone that invites armoured cars. A referendum that can’t be fairly run. A €210 billion pot that solves today’s bills but complicates tomorrow’s peace.

We start with shuttle diplomacy and the hard edges of a potential DMZ in Donetsk. On paper it pauses the fight; in practice Rosgvardiya blurs policing and militarisation, turning “demilitarised” into a loophole big enough for armour. We then map the constitutional and moral traps around wartime elections or referendums, where occupied voters, blocked monitors and legal grey zones collide with Kyiv’s need to navigate Washington without capitulating.

From there, we track Europe’s move to indefinitely freeze Russian sovereign assets and the push to spend them on Ukraine’s budget. It feels just and efficient, but invites Russian expropriations at home, lawfare against Euroclear, and counter‑seizures abroad. It also spends tomorrow’s reconstruction funds during the war, betting that weary voters will keep paying later. Meanwhile, Moscow counts manpower, energy pressure and US politics more than ledgers, so the deterrent effect may be modest.

The Ben Aris article I mention is at: https://www.intellinews.com/commnet-the-eu-s-reparation-loan-vote-needs-to-fail-416078/?source=russia

Finally, to a Paris restaurant where a row between Garry Kasparov and Vladimir Kara‑Murza exposed a deeper rift inside the exile opposition. PACE’s platform and its Berlin Declaration have elevated some factions while sidelining Navalny’s network, creating gatekeepers and fresh grievances. The result is predictable: public spats, claims of capture by donors, and propaganda gifts to the Kremlin. The uncomfortable truth remains that Russia’s future will be authored inside Russia; exiles matter most when they support rather than splinter the constituencies that still exist at home.

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