China: Indonesia & Trump Tariffs, Manufacturing Dominance & Involution 内卷 & Education Labor Mismatch with Jianggan Li- E455

Jianggan Li, Founder & CEO of Momentum Works, and Jeremy Au talked about three main themes:

1. Indonesia & Trump Tariffs: Indonesia's new tariffs target imports like China-manufactured footwear, clothing, and ceramics to protect 65M local micro, small and medium enterprises employing 109M people. These trade barriers have negatively impacted local customers, e.g a hotpot restaurant struggling to get custom-branded plates. Similar measures include Brazil's quota for steel products, South Africa's tariffs on solar panels, and Trump's proposal to increase US tariffs to 60% on Chinese goods.

2. China Manufacturing Dominance: Manufacturing efficiency is driven by specialization, scale and agglomeration, e.g. Zhejiang dominates specific industries such as fishing rods, while Zhongshan (Guzhen) is known as the "lighting capital of the world." Historical precedents are Germany and Japan's post-WWII industrialization surge that resulted in global trade wars, UK protectionism and USA enacting the Plaza Accords to protect their manufacturers.

3. Involution 内卷 & Education Labor Mismatch: Intense competition in China's manufacturing sector has resulted in low profit margins and thus low salaries for workers. Fierce competition among workers for limited gains leads to significant burnout, a phenomenon known as "involution" (内卷, nèijuǎn). Chinese workers heavily invest in gaokao (高考) education for their children as a ticket to a better life, but too many families doing so has led to an oversupply of university graduates vs. the actual labor market - further exacerbating stress and pressure. Overseas consumers benefit the most by enjoying low prices and high-quality goods, which contribute to low inflation in their own countries.

Jeremy and Jianggan highlighted Singapore and Malaysia's collaboration challenges on data centers, Germany's vocational education system, and the long-term benefits of Chinese businesses setting up operations abroad.

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