Closing Bell Closing Bell Overtime: Housing Outlook, Holiday Retail Trends, and the Future of Work 12/30/24
Dec 30, 2024
In this discussion, Dan Niles, founder and portfolio manager of Niles Investment Management, provides insights into navigating the tech stock selloff and market trends. He examines how rising treasury yields are impacting investment strategies. The conversation also covers housing market dynamics with Dallas Turner, CEO of Invitation Homes, shedding light on pending sales and demographic shifts. Former Walmart CEO Bill Simon analyzes consumer behavior around holiday shopping, emphasizing a resurgence in in-person retail despite economic challenges.
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December Market Weakness
- Don't overemphasize December market weakness; positive seasonality has weakened recently.
- This is the fifth time the S&P 500 rose 20+% in an election year; December has been down in four of those.
2025 Market Outlook
- Expect market volatility in 2025 due to a new administration and fiscal policy uncertainty.
- The Fed may only ease twice if inflation remains flat or increases, but there's potential for a positive surprise.
Bond Market Dynamics
- The recent rise in Treasury yields has occurred alongside a decline in the economic surprise index.
- This divergence raises questions about how much further yields can climb without an inflation surprise or more hawkish Fed action.