Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar 11/1/24: FINAL POLLS Show Kamala Movement In Blue Wall, Trump Calls Out Liz Cheney
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Nov 1, 2024 The discussion kicks off with an analysis of recent election polls, emphasizing the importance of a unified perspective. Humor and skepticism arise as they critique polling credibility and explore the dynamics of shifting voter support. Trump's evolving image among his supporters is examined, along with challenges for Democrats in appealing to specific demographics. The conversation also dives into GOP divisions, gender dynamics, and the complexities surrounding Trump's commentary on Liz Cheney, revealing the intricate web of political loyalty and public sentiment.
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Pollster Incentives
- Pollsters are incentivized to avoid predictions that deviate too far from the consensus.
- This is due to fear of reputational damage after inaccurate predictions in prior elections.
Shy Trump Voter Theory
- The "shy Trump supporter" phenomenon may not be as prevalent this election.
- Open Trump support is more visible, suggesting that adjustments for shyness might be miscalibrated.
PolyMarket Shifts
- PolyMarket betting data shows recent shifts favoring Kamala Harris in Michigan and Wisconsin.
- This contrasts with earlier trends and suggests a potential correction in the market.