Dartmouth Professor of Economics Douglas Irwin Talks US Trade
Feb 3, 2025
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Douglas Irwin, a Dartmouth economics professor and author of "Against the Tide," dives into the complexities of U.S. trade policy. He argues for Congress to reclaim its trade powers from the executive, warning of potential drawbacks. Irwin critiques tariffs established during the Trump era, debunking myths about economic growth and discussing their inflationary effects. He also highlights the nuanced trade relationships with Canada and Mexico, emphasizing the need for strategic adjustments in light of rising tariffs on China and shifting political landscapes.
Congress must reclaim more authority over trade policy to better serve constituents and mitigate negative consequences of tariffs.
The complexities of modern global supply chains mean that new tariffs can cause widespread disruptions across various interconnected sectors.
Deep dives
Empowering Congress on Trade Decisions
Congress has historically delegated significant authority over tariff setting to the president, assuming that the executive branch would act in the national interest. However, this delegation has led to a reduction in Congress's ability to influence important trade decisions, which could adversely impact constituents. It is suggested that Congress needs to assert its power more robustly to prevent negative consequences from current and proposed tariff measures. This shift would involve re-evaluating the balance of power concerning trade agreements and tariffs, which have far-reaching effects on the economy.
The Complexities of Modern Tariffs
Modern economies operate through integrated supply chains and international production networks, contrasting sharply with the trade model of the past. Current proposals for new tariffs could disrupt these established connections, resulting in significant ripple effects throughout various sectors. Unlike the straightforward tariff impositions of the 1800s, today’s globalized economy makes the implications of tariffs much more complicated. As such, the interdependence of nations means that tariffs could lead to severe disruptions not only within the target industries but across interconnected markets.
Future Implications of Tariff Policies
Current tariffs, particularly those enacted in response to non-economic issues, are being criticized for lacking thorough vetting and deliberation. The imposition of such tariffs is expected to produce inflationary effects, impacting consumer prices without necessarily leading to sustained increases in overall inflation rates. Furthermore, forecasts indicate that these tariff measures may slow GDP growth in the long term, with negative effects expected to materialize shortly after implementation. The continued shift towards protectionism reflects broader geopolitical considerations but raises concerns about the future stability of the global trading system.