Invest Like a Billionaire Oil Prices & Venezuela: What Investors Need to Know for 2026
Jan 13, 2026
Venezuela's oil reserves are vast, yet production is dismal due to sanctions and aging infrastructure. The hosts debunk claims about immediate impacts on oil prices and delve into the role of the shadow fleet managing black-market oil. They discuss the geopolitical implications of policing these fleets and how global forces like Ukraine threaten supply. While short-term recovery is unlikely, the discussion reveals a long-term investment thesis that underinvestment in oil assets may create significant opportunities by 2026.
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Huge Reserves, Slow Return
- Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves but currently produces around 1 million barrels per day.
- Restoring production will take a decade or more because infrastructure is dilapidated and wells often need re-drilling.
Stocks React, Oil Doesn't
- Oil-company stocks rose on expectations of rebuilding Venezuela, but the oil commodity price did not move materially.
- Bringing Venezuela back to its former 3 mb/d peak would still be only about 3% of global demand and take many years.
Soviet Comparison For Recovery Timeline
- Bob compares Venezuela's collapse to the Soviet Union, which took decades to restore oil production.
- He uses that historical example to warn rebuilding Venezuela will be a long, resource-intensive process.