Developer Tea

Better Low-Information Estimates - Putting the "Scientific" in SWAG

4 snips
Dec 17, 2024
Explore how to make better wild guesses when defining work in ambiguous projects. Learn the difference between estimates and deadlines, and the psychological impacts of those deadlines. Discover effective strategies for uncertain work, including affinity estimation and PERT, emphasizing the importance of teamwork. Gain insights aimed at engineering leaders to enhance project planning efficiency, all while navigating complexities like dependencies.
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INSIGHT

Estimates for Decision-Making

  • Leaders want estimates to assess project costs and benefits relative to their budget.
  • They condense these factors into a simple ROI calculation to make decisions with limited information.
INSIGHT

Estimates as Bets

  • Estimates are guesses about the future combined with a confidence level, similar to bets.
  • Confidence intervals increase with more time, as the likelihood of accumulating completed work rises.
ADVICE

Deadlines vs. Estimates

  • Avoid using single dates as estimates; deadlines are commitments, not estimates.
  • Deadlines influence psychology by creating containers for work (Parkinson's Law) and mitigating risk.
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