RiskReversal Pod Momentum Over Logic: Why Chasing Stocks Works in This Market
Nov 11, 2025
Liz Thomas, an economist from SoFi, discusses the market's surprising resilience amid a potential government shutdown. She highlights the risks of missing economic data and its impact on Fed expectations. The duo debates the upcoming December rate cut and the implications of diverse Fed communications. Liz emphasizes the tight labor market and skill mismatches while unveiling a preview of her 2026 outlook, warning about escalating tail risks. The conversation also touches on seasonality effects and the momentum influencing gold and Bitcoin markets.
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Shutdown Rally Masks Data Gaps
- The market barely sold off during the government shutdown but rallied on signs it might end.
- Missing economic data from the shutdown creates uncertainty and potential whiplash when it returns.
Missing October Data Creates Fed Uncertainty
- Some October data may be permanently missing because it wasn't collected during the shutdown.
- That gap could produce market whipsaw and complicate Fed decision-making.
Fed Speak Will Drive Short-Term Volatility
- Fed speakers will cause volatility this week as markets parse mixed messages.
- Liz warns that differing Fed views could push market expectations around a December cut back and forth.