Kursk Changed the War - Dmitry Polyanskiy (Russian Rep to UN), Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen
Aug 28, 2024
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Dmitry Polyanskiy, the Russian Representative to the UN, joins political analyst Alexander Mercouris and political scientist Glenn Diesen in a riveting discussion. They dive into the significance of the Kursk conflict, revealing how Ukraine's actions have shifted global perceptions and weakened its negotiating power. The trio also tackles Ukraine's military losses and the precarious situation at nuclear facilities. They further examine past proposals for peace that were dismissed and the lingering challenges in achieving a diplomatic resolution amidst escalating tensions.
Western diplomatic ambiguity regarding the Kursk conflict reveals a stark contrast in commitment compared to the previous year’s support for Ukraine.
The escalation of military conflict underscores Ukraine's shift towards a hardline stance, hindering opportunities for meaningful diplomatic negotiations with Russia.
Deep dives
Western Diplomatic Ambiguity
Western reactions to the invasion of Kursk show significant diplomatic ambiguity, particularly from the United States and the United Kingdom. The U.S. has limited commentary and involvement, leading to speculation about its true position on the conflict, despite supplying intelligence to Ukraine. Observers note a stark contrast from a year prior, when there was vocal support for Ukraine's sovereignty; this year, Western nations appeared uncertain, delaying calls for meetings to discuss the situation. This indecision illuminates the complexities surrounding the perceived aggression of the Ukrainian regime and its impact on the dynamics of the conflict.
The Reality of the Kursk Incursion
The Kursk incursion is portrayed as a detrimental move that exposed the Ukrainian government's aggressive tendencies and violations against civilians. Reports indicate that Ukrainian armed forces have engaged in actions perceived as terrorist in nature, targeting non-combatants and showcasing a disregard for humanitarian norms. Observers from the global South question the legitimacy of Ukraine's military actions within Russian territory, reflecting broader concerns about the narrative being presented to the world. This shift in perception may challenge longstanding support for Ukraine among various international actors.
Diminished Negotiation Prospects
The Kursk conflict has seemingly eliminated the opportunity for meaningful negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, particularly after a previously favorable proposal from Russia was dismissed by Ukraine. Analysts suggest that Zelensky's administration may view the escalation as beneficial to galvanize Western support, despite increasing military failures. The hardline approach adopted by Ukraine undermines earlier diplomatic overtures, indicating a preference for military engagement over reconciliation. The current geopolitical climate suggests a reduction in willingness from some Western leaders to pursue genuine dialogue regarding the conflict.
Military Position and Future Strategies
The military landscape in Ukraine is shifting dramatically, with Russia capitalizing on the diversion of Ukrainian forces to Kursk, resulting in mounting pressure on Ukrainian defenses in the East. Reports cite losses in territory and personnel for Ukraine, compelling a reevaluation of their strategic outlook amid unfavorable conditions. Analysts note that the Ukrainian military is committing resources to sustain control over territories that are becoming increasingly difficult to defend, while Russian forces maintain an advantageous stance. This scenario presents challenges for Ukraine as it grapples with sustaining its military efforts against a resilient and strategically positioned Russian force.