#947 - Is Inflation Still a Worry? With Mish Schneider
Jan 5, 2024
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Mish Schneider, Chief strategist at MarketGauge, joins Maggie Lake to discuss investorsâ reaction to todayâs jobs report, potential commodity supercycle, secondary inflation wave, and impact of a bitcoin ETF. They also analyze indicators of inflation, movement of commodities, hedging for a second inflation wave, AI's potential, Vietnam's trade, China's impact on the global economy, and market concerns.
Rising shipping costs, geopolitical concerns, and elevated commodity prices point to the possibility of a super cycle in inflation.
Gold remains close to its all-time highs and is perceived as a flight to safety, while silver's price movement raises questions about its performance in an inflationary scenario.
Deep dives
Inflation and Rates: Assessing the Evidence
The podcast discusses the current state of inflation and interest rates. While some evidence supports the narrative of disinflation, there are other indicators that suggest inflationary pressures. Rising shipping costs, geopolitical concerns, and elevated commodity prices point to the possibility of a super cycle in inflation. The employment numbers, wage increases, and rising prices of goods further contribute to the uncertainty. The podcast emphasizes the need to monitor indicators such as gold and silver prices, oil levels, and sugar prices for potential signals of an inflationary super cycle.
Hedging Inflation with Gold and Silver
The podcast explores the potential for hedging against inflation using gold and silver. Despite some analysts suggesting otherwise, gold has remained close to its all-time highs and continues to be perceived as a flight to safety. The price movement of silver, on the other hand, has been more stagnant, which raises questions about its performance in an inflationary scenario. The podcast also mentions the importance of monitoring oil prices as a potential indicator of inflationary pressures. Additionally, the speaker highlights sugar as a commodity often influenced by inflation and suggests keeping an eye on its price movement.
China's Economic Outlook and Investing Opportunities
The podcast touches upon the topic of China's economic outlook and investment opportunities. The speaker mentions that the Chinese population focuses on protection, personal wealth, and consumer spending. While acknowledging concerns and controversies surrounding Chinese stocks like Alibaba, the speaker suggests monitoring FXI as a potential investment option. The speaker also discusses the potential implications of astrological factors such as the Chinese zodiac year, which is the year of the dragon, indicating potential positive sentiment for the banking sector.
Assessing the S&P 500 and Banking Sector
The podcast briefly discusses the S&P 500 and the banking sector. While acknowledging the possibility of a double top formation, the speaker expresses a lack of worry regarding the current correction in the S&P 500. The speaker suggests monitoring the 4600 level and highlights the importance of watching for potential range-bound trading and support levels, such as 4400. The podcast also mentions the resilience of the banking sector, particularly regional banks, and expresses interest in monitoring their performance.
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Mish Schneider, chief strategist at MarketGauge joins Maggie Lake to recap this week in markets, discuss investorsâ reaction to todayâs jobs report and ISM data, a potential commodity supercycle, the prospects of a secondary inflation wave, and the potential impact of a bitcoin ETF.
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