Money Talks: Is the West losing its sanctions war?
Feb 29, 2024
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Exploring the effectiveness of financial warfare through sanctions on Russia, challenges in enforcing sanctions, impact on international policy, historical evolution of sanctions, middle-income countries' role in relief amidst sanctions, US push for seizing Russian assets in Europe, and humorous economic proposals
Despite efforts to cripple Russia's economy with sanctions, it has shown resilience, growing slightly from 2021 to 2023.
Middle power countries like Brazil, India, and Mexico play a significant role in circumventing Western sanctions and supplying critical goods to Russia.
Deep dives
Effectiveness and Resilience of Economic Sanctions Against Russia
The podcast discusses the effectiveness and resilience of economic sanctions imposed against Russia in response to its actions in Ukraine. Despite efforts to cripple Russia's economy, it has shown resilience, with output even growing slightly from 2021 to 2023. The US and its allies have targeted Russia's oligarchs, banks, and businesses profiting from the invasion, imposing thousands of individual sanctions. However, alternative suppliers to Russia have emerged, evading Western sanctions, showcasing some limitations of the sanctions regime.
Global Influence Through Sanctions and Middle Power Countries
The episode delves into the impact of sanctions and the involvement of middle power countries in sanction circumvention. Countries like Brazil, India, and Mexico have declined to participate in Western sanctions against Russia post-Ukraine invasion. These neutral countries play a significant role by supplying critical goods to Russia and circumventing the West's economic warfare. The podcast highlights the challenges of enforcing sanctions on middle power countries that are neither implicated in Western sanctions nor directly implementing them.
Challenges and Evolving Strategies in Sanctions Enforcement
The conversation shifts to the challenges in enforcing sanctions and the evolving strategies needed for effective sanctions enforcement. Policy experts explore whether sanctions should be sharpened or retired, highlighting the complexity of modern global economic interdependencies. The discussion emphasizes the need to incentivize countries to comply with sanctions through a combination of carrots and sticks, considering broader geopolitical goals and the changing landscape of global power dynamics.
Potential Impact of Asset Expropriation and Future Sanctions Policy
The episode explores the proposal to expropriate Russian assets to fund Ukrainian military efforts and the potential implications of such a strategy. Policy experts weigh the effectiveness and legality of using frozen Russian reserves for strategic funding. The discussion delves into the need for innovative sanctions policies that balance deterrence with broader geopolitical considerations. The insights shed light on the complexities of sanction enforcement and the evolving nature of economic warfare tactics.
It's been two years since Russia brought war to Ukraine. America, Britain and the European Union may not have intervened by putting boots on the ground—but they have launched a massive financial counteroffensive. Vladimir Putin’s government, his cronies and the businesses profiting from the war are all subject to sanctions, yet the Russian economy has proved remarkably resilient. So, does financial warfare work?
Hosts: Mike Bird, Alice Fulwood and Tom Lee-Devlin. Guests: The Economist’s Cerian Richmond Jones; Juan Zarate, the architect of America’s sanctions after the September 11th attacks; and Nicholas Mulder, author of “The Economic Weapon”, which examines the rise of sanctions as a tool of war.
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