Ann Selzer, a renowned Iowa pollster, discusses her latest findings showing Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump, shedding light on shifting voter sentiments. Jordan Rochester analyzes the market's response to the recent jobs report and outlines how upcoming elections could impact economic indicators. Bob Woodward reflects on political dynamics post-Watergate and parallels with today's leadership issues. Lisa Mateo emphasizes the crucial role of newspapers in presidential endorsements, stressing the importance of robust journalism in shaping public opinion.
The continuous operation of the futures market allows traders to capitalize on global events in real-time, enhancing liquidity and profit potential.
Recent polling data indicates Kamala Harris's surprising lead over Donald Trump, particularly among women voters aged 65 and older, reflecting significant electoral shifts.
Deep dives
Futures Market Advantages
The futures market operates nearly 24 hours a day, offering continuous trading opportunities and greater liquidity compared to other markets like ETFs, where volume diminishes after regular trading hours. This enables traders to capitalize on market movements at any time, providing a distinct advantage during slower market periods. For instance, CME Group's S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures allow participation during both day and night, ensuring that traders can respond to global events as they unfold. This uninterrupted access can lead to potentially profitable trades that are unavailable in other financial markets.
Impact of Cell Phones on Polling
The advent of cell phones has significantly transformed polling methodologies, allowing for the inclusion of both cell phone and landline samples in surveys. This was highlighted by the example of Ann Seltzer's polling work, demonstrating a higher response rate despite the common reluctance of individuals to answer unknown callers. The ability to randomly sample mobile numbers since the late 2000s has improved the accuracy and representation of poll results. It reflects a broader trend where traditional polling techniques have adapted to modern communication, enhancing their effectiveness.
Polling Insights on Kamala Harris
Recent polling data reveals that Vice President Kamala Harris has gained a surprising lead over former President Donald Trump, with demographic analysis indicating a strong support base among women, particularly older voters. The latest poll showed Harris ahead by three points, driven by factors such as increased voter turnout and significant shifts in engagement compared to earlier months. This trend illustrates a notable gender gap, with Harris performing exceptionally well among female voters aged 65 and older. This demographic’s increased willingness to vote may play a pivotal role in shaping the election landscape.
Iowa's Political Landscape
Iowa's unique political dynamics are influenced by local issues such as abortion rights, impacting congressional races and voter preferences. Recent surveys reveal a strong lead for Democratic candidates in specific districts, emphasizing the role of gender and educational demographics in electoral success. Meanwhile, areas like Chickasaw County remain strongholds for Republican support, although margins are tightening. This complexity highlights how nuanced local factors can reshape political affiliations and outcomes, making Iowa a critical state to watch in national elections.
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyNovember 4th, 2024 What would YOU like to hear about on Bloomberg? Help make shows like ours even better by taking our Bloomberg audience survey. (https://bit.ly/4eIFhe5) Featuring:
Ann Selzer, Iowa pollster & President at Selzer & Co., on her most recent poll showing Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in the state
Jordan Rochester, Head: FICC Macro Strategy at Mizuho, offers his reaction to last week's jobs report, talks about the Fed, and gives his outlook for how markets will react to the US presidential election
Bob Woodward, author and former Washington Post reporter, on Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, and his new book "War"