Prediction Markets Are Revolutionizing Sports Betting | The Brainstorm EP 99
Aug 27, 2025
Discover how Robinhood and Kalshi are transforming sports betting by expanding access to prediction markets, especially in states where traditional betting is illegal. Explore the differences between prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks, highlighting Robinhood's innovative pricing structure. Delve into the societal impacts of these markets, including connections to gambling addiction, while examining regulatory challenges faced by major players. The discussion offers insights into the future of sports betting and its evolving landscape.
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insights INSIGHT
Nationwide Reach Through CFTC-Regulated Markets
Kalshi + Robinhood let users access prediction markets nationwide under CFTC oversight.
That access drives heavy sports volume from states without legalized mobile sports betting.
insights INSIGHT
Big-State Demand Drives Prediction Volume
Major states like California and Texas lack legal mobile sports betting, creating unmet demand.
Prediction markets satisfy that demand nationally, so sports volume concentrates in those states.
insights INSIGHT
Products Still Less Deep Than Sportsbooks
Prediction market product depth lags sportsbooks on parlays and player props today.
That limits direct share losses for DraftKings and FanDuel in states where sportsbooks already operate.
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In this episode of the Brainstorm, Sam Korus and Nicholas Grous dive into the intriguing world of prediction markets, focusing on the recent partnership between Robinhood and Kalshi. They explore how this collaboration is reshaping access to sports betting across the U.S., especially in states where traditional sports betting remains illegal. The discussion also touches on the broader implications for the industry, including the competitive landscape with major players like DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you know ARK, then you probably know about our long-term research projections, like estimating where we will be 5-10 years from now! But just because we are long-term investors, doesn’t mean we don’t have strong views and opinions on breaking news. In fact, we discuss and debate this every day. So now we’re sharing some of these internal discussions with you in our new video series, “The Brainstorm”, a co-production from ARK and Public.com. Tune in every week as we react to the latest in innovation. Here and there we’ll be joined by special guests, but ultimately this is our chance to join the conversation and share ARK’s quick takes on what’s going on in tech today.
Key Points From This Episode:
Robinhood and Kalshi's partnership is expanding access to prediction markets, allowing users to bet on sports outcomes through the Robinhood app, even in states where traditional sports betting is illegal.
Prediction markets offer a unique fee structure, with Robinhood charging a flat two-cent fee per contract, making it an attractive option compared to traditional sportsbooks.
The collaboration between Robinhood and Kalshi highlights a significant shift in the sports betting landscape, posing potential challenges and opportunities for established players like DraftKings and FanDuel.
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