Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality 8 – Positive Bias
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Jun 2, 2011 The podcast discusses the origin of the All-Powerful Snap and introduces Hermione and Neville. They explore Hermione's frustrations at school and her encounter with Harry Potter. They also talk about a game based on the 246 task, a missing toad, desensitization therapy, and Harry taking matters into his own hands.
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Meeting Harry Potter in Person
- Harry Potter introduces himself confidently to Hermione, revealing his unique origin and fame in the wizarding world.
- Hermione experiences meeting a character she recognizes from books, a surreal moment for her.
Avoid Positive Bias in Testing
- Always test hypotheses by seeking disconfirming evidence, not just confirming examples.
- Beware positive bias; it leads you to confirm incorrect assumptions by ignoring negative tests.
Positive Bias Limits Science
- Scientific inquiry requires careful design of experiments that consider both positive and negative outcomes.
- People often mistakenly reinforce wrong hypotheses when they only find confirming results.