Morning Brew Daily How the Fed Evaluates Inflation During a Shutdown, with the Chicago Fed President
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Oct 16, 2025 
Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, dives into how the Fed navigates the data blackout caused by the government shutdown. He explains the challenges of interpreting labor signals and the slow hiring landscape attributed to AI. Goolsbee emphasizes the essential independence of the Fed from political pressures, warning how meddling can fuel inflation. Listeners get a rare glimpse into the intricate voting process of FOMC meetings and a lighthearted story about teaching on his wedding day.
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Data Blackout Raises Policy Uncertainty
- Austan Goolsbee says the Fed must often decide with imperfect information and the shutdown makes that worse.
- He warns missing data adds question marks and complicates policy timing decisions.
Don’t Rely On Raw Aggregate Job Numbers
- Goolsbee urges analysts to "sniff" lots of series rather than rely on single raw aggregates like ADP.
- He recommends looking for consistent signals across multiple indicators before concluding a turning point.
Labor Rates Tell A Truer Story
- Four labor rates (unemployment, vacancy, hiring, layoff) reveal deeper cycle signals than headline payrolls.
- Currently hiring looks like recession while layoffs look like boom, creating a mixed picture.