FDD Morning Brief | feat. Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak (Jan. 24)
Jan 24, 2025
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Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, a renowned professor at Tel Aviv University and expert on Turkey's political landscape, sheds light on Turkey's evolving alliances and its historical ties to the Ottoman Empire. He discusses Turkey’s shift from a secular ally of Israel to a supporter of Hamas, exploring the ramifications for regional geopolitics. The conversation also touches on Turkey's role in Syrian reconstruction and the pressing challenges related to Kurdish issues, unveiling the complex interplay of power in the Middle East.
The theft of humanitarian aid by Hamas during ceasefires reveals the dangers of allowing terrorist groups to regroup and strengthen.
Turkey's shift from a secular ally of the West to a supporter of extremist groups poses significant threats to regional stability and Israel's security.
Deep dives
Hamas Exploits Aid to Regroup
Hamas is reportedly stealing from the large influx of humanitarian aid into Gaza, which includes 2,400 trucks worth of supplies. This situation highlights the risk associated with ceasefires, as they often allow terrorist groups to regroup and reassert their power after suffering setbacks. Despite initial expectations that Israel would permit a managed ceasefire, indications suggest that Israel is prepared to take decisive action against Hamas once the current 42-day period concludes. This impending confrontation indicates a potential shift towards a more aggressive phase of conflict as Israel seeks to prevent Hamas from regaining ground.
Turkey's Deepening Ties with Extremist Groups
Turkey has shifted from being a secular ally of the West to supporting extremist groups such as Hamas and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, raising concerns about its regional influence. This change in Turkey's foreign policy is notably linked to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ideological alignment with the Muslim Brotherhood and his recent rhetoric depicting Hamas as freedom fighters. Turkey's involvement in the support of such groups has led to a significant deterioration in relations with Israel, with Turkish sanctions against Israel and increased antagonism. Observers warn that Turkey's new role in Syria and its strategic partnerships with various terror organizations pose an ongoing threat to stability in the region.
Iran's Vulnerability Amid Russia's Focus on Ukraine
The war in Ukraine has far-reaching implications for Iran's military capabilities, particularly regarding its air defense systems. Israel has reportedly taken out Iran's critical S-300 missile systems, leaving it vulnerable to potential attacks, as Russia is preoccupied with the conflict in Ukraine and unable to replenish those defenses. If the war ends, there is a concern that Iran could regain its air defenses, which would significantly alter the balance of power in the region. This interconnectedness of conflicts in Israel and Ukraine emphasizes the strategic importance of managing developments in both areas to prevent further destabilization.
FDD Executive Director Jon Schanzer delivers timely situational updates and analysis, followed by a conversation with Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, an author, Tel Aviv University professor, and one of the world's foremost experts on Turkey.