The Macro Brief by HSBC Global Research cover image

The Macro Brief by HSBC Global Research

The UK's tough choices

Sep 15, 2023
The challenges facing the UK economy include slow growth, high inflation, elevated interest rates, and debt burden. Factors such as strikes and poor weather have contributed to the lack of growth in recent UK GDP numbers. Analyzing and forecasting the UK economy amidst pandemic-related uncertainties is challenging, with potential downside risks. The effects of interest rates on the housing market and economy are discussed, as well as the upcoming UK election and tough choices for the government and the Labour party. The impact of the US economy and Eurozone weakness on the UK, along with GDP forecast and investment opportunities, are also highlighted.
12:03

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The UK economy is facing multiple challenges, including sluggish growth, high inflation, and a heavy debt burden, which will pose tough choices for policymakers.
  • Despite some banks offering better mortgage rates, the housing market is expected to experience weak activity due to higher mortgage rates and limited compensation in terms of falling house prices.

Deep dives

UK economy facing challenges from sluggish growth, high inflation, elevated interest rates, and heavy debt burden

The UK economy is currently grappling with multiple challenges, including sluggish growth, high inflation, elevated interest rates, and a heavy debt burden. These issues present a daunting list of problems for policymakers to address. Senior UK economist Liz Martins points out that the economy exhibited no growth in the past year, and attributes this lack of economic momentum to factors such as strikes, poor weather, and the ongoing impact of the pandemic. While GDP analysis and forecasting have become more complex due to volatility caused by lockdowns, reopenings, and strikes, the Bank of England remains concerned about the inflationary impact of rising pay. As a result, a 25 basis point rate hike is expected at the upcoming Bank of England meeting, pending the release of August's inflation data.

Get the Snipd
podcast app

Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
App store bannerPlay store banner

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode

Save any
moment

Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways

Share
& Export

Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode