The challenges facing the UK economy include slow growth, high inflation, elevated interest rates, and debt burden. Factors such as strikes and poor weather have contributed to the lack of growth in recent UK GDP numbers. Analyzing and forecasting the UK economy amidst pandemic-related uncertainties is challenging, with potential downside risks. The effects of interest rates on the housing market and economy are discussed, as well as the upcoming UK election and tough choices for the government and the Labour party. The impact of the US economy and Eurozone weakness on the UK, along with GDP forecast and investment opportunities, are also highlighted.
The UK economy is facing multiple challenges, including sluggish growth, high inflation, and a heavy debt burden, which will pose tough choices for policymakers.
Despite some banks offering better mortgage rates, the housing market is expected to experience weak activity due to higher mortgage rates and limited compensation in terms of falling house prices.
Deep dives
UK economy facing challenges from sluggish growth, high inflation, elevated interest rates, and heavy debt burden
The UK economy is currently grappling with multiple challenges, including sluggish growth, high inflation, elevated interest rates, and a heavy debt burden. These issues present a daunting list of problems for policymakers to address. Senior UK economist Liz Martins points out that the economy exhibited no growth in the past year, and attributes this lack of economic momentum to factors such as strikes, poor weather, and the ongoing impact of the pandemic. While GDP analysis and forecasting have become more complex due to volatility caused by lockdowns, reopenings, and strikes, the Bank of England remains concerned about the inflationary impact of rising pay. As a result, a 25 basis point rate hike is expected at the upcoming Bank of England meeting, pending the release of August's inflation data.
Housing market expected to face weak activity due to higher mortgage rates and limited compensation in falling prices
Despite some banks offering better mortgage rates compared to previous highs, the housing market is expected to experience weak activity. Mortgage rates, although slightly lower than their previous peaks, remain higher than rates in previous years. This is a significant factor for individuals rolling off fixed-rate deals, as their mortgages have become considerably more expensive compared to what they were when they initially fixed their rates. Moreover, lending conditions for first-time buyers have become more stringent, while there has been limited compensation in terms of falling house prices. As a result, modest declines in house prices and low levels of transactions are expected.
UK government faces tough choices on tax cuts and public services ahead of next year's general election
As the UK prepares for next year's general election, the current conservative administration is faced with tough choices regarding tax cuts and public services. Although recent government borrowing figures were lower than expected, potential tax cuts ahead of the election are still uncertain. While Prime Minister Boris Johnson has mentioned the possibility of tax cuts in the future, the economic context of elevated inflation and interest rates makes it unlikely that tax cuts will be implemented during the Autumn Statement in November. However, closer to the election in March, if inflation and rates stabilize, Johnson may consider tax cuts to bridge the gap with the opposition Labour Party. Nevertheless, the limited room for maneuver due to high public sector debt and existing challenges in areas such as public services, education, healthcare, and infrastructure, means that tax cuts may not be feasible. Labour's position emphasizes economic stability, and while they have announced revenue-raising measures such as abolishing non-dom status and VAT-free tax status for private schools, these measures are unlikely to generate significant funds. Both parties will face the difficult choice of either increased borrowing or raising taxes to address the demands of public services.
Liz Martins assesses the daunting list of challenges facing the UK economy with sluggish growth, high inflation, elevated interest rates and a heavy debt burden.
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Disclosures and Disclaimers: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/51/vGFLbSq