Sharp or Square - NFL Week 17 Bets: Lions-Vikings, Broncos-Chiefs, Texans-Chargers, Ravens-Packers, Eagles-Bills and more

Dec 24, 2025

This week’s betting talk dives into NFL matchups with a festive twist! Key game predictions cover Cowboys facing the Commanders, with a focus on line movements. The Lions' chances against the Vikings depend on a critical injury concern. With emergency quarterbacks on the Broncos and Chiefs, the spread raises eyebrows. The Texans aim for an upset against the Chargers, while the Ravens navigate locker room tensions ahead of their game against the Packers. A Christmas Day parlay idea adds a sprinkle of holiday cheer to the betting insights!

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ADVICE

Shop For Small Edges

Shop lines and take value when available, especially small half-point differences like 2 vs 2.5.
Bet favorites or dogs only when the price and matchup justify it, not emotion or packaging.

ANECDOTE

Gin, Bedtime, And Upset-Free Viewing

Chad Millman describes playing gin with his son and missing the game live, then waking to find the Patriots won.
He uses that routine as a tongue-in-cheek strategy to avoid stressing over primetime outcomes.

INSIGHT

Backup QBs Skew Incentives

Backup QB uncertainty greatly alters game value and public behavior for Christmas Day games.
Teams with third-string QBs often create strange incentives and unpredictable spreads.

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