Idris Kalun, the Washington bureau chief for The Economist, and Duncan Weldon, a British writer for the publication, tackle the shifting political landscape as Donald Trump’s potential comeback looms. They explore Biden's struggles in battleground states and the surprising increase in support for Trump. The discussion also ventures into Basildon, a microcosm of national sentiment in Britain, and pays tribute to peace activist Vivian Silver, whose legacy adds depth to the ongoing discourse about conflict and resilience.
Recent polls indicate that if the presidential election were held today, Donald Trump would likely win due to Joe Biden's weak position and Trump's enduring strength.
Voters tend to trust Donald Trump over Joe Biden on issues such as the economy, immigration, and the conflict in Gaza, posing challenges for the Democrats in terms of winning key voter groups and overall reelection.
Deep dives
Current poll suggests Trump would win if election were held today
According to recent polls, if the presidential election were held today, it is likely that Donald Trump would win. Despite his low popularity and the efforts of his Republican rivals to downplay his chances, polls show President Joe Biden trailing in key swing states such as Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Michigan. Working-class voters, who were expected to support Biden, are slipping away to the Republican side, as are minority voters. Although the situation could change in a year, Biden's weak position and Trump's enduring strength are causing concern for Democrats.
Joe Biden faces challenges from key voter groups
Polls indicate that Joe Biden is facing challenges from important voter groups. On issues such as the economy, immigration, and the conflict in Gaza, voters tend to trust Donald Trump over Biden. Working-class voters, including black and Latino voters, who are crucial to the Democratic base, are showing support for Trump, which could make it more difficult for the Democrats to win in the 2024 election. Biden's approval ratings are not as high as expected, and the contrast between Trump's strengths and Biden's weaknesses is a significant factor in these challenges.
The uncertain future of Joe Biden's reelection bid
Although Joe Biden has a weak starting point for his reelection bid, there are still factors that could turn the tide in his favor. The upcoming long campaign will allow him to remind voters of his accomplishments, including passing legislation on infrastructure, gun control, and climate change. Additionally, Biden hopes to generate enthusiasm by highlighting his handling of the Ukraine conflict and the Israeli conflict in Gaza, while hoping that inflation, a significant issue affecting his approval ratings, will cool down. However, the uncertain economic sentiment and ongoing debates on abortion rights could further complicate Biden's reelection efforts.
Were America’s presidential election to be held today, Donald Trump would probably win. We examine the winds shifting in his favour, and how the Biden campaign might tack against them. The town of Basildon best matches Britain’s national-average statistics—a mean reason to pay a visit (13:13). And remembering Vivian Silver, a Canadian-Israeli peace activist who died at the hands of Hamas (20:51).
Sign up for a free trial of Economist Podcasts+. If you’re already a subscriber to The Economist, you’ll have full access to all our shows as part of your subscription. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account.