Volatility Views 336: Kicking off 2019 With Some Volatility

Volatility Views 336: Kicking off 2019 With Some Volatility

• Host: Mark Longo, CEO & Founder - The Options Insider Media Group
• Co-Host: Mark Sebastian, Co-Founder -OptionPit.com, Portfolio Manager - Karman Line Capital

VOLATILITY REVIEW

• Massive jobs report - The economy added 312k jobs in Dec, although unemployment is up to 3.9% Powell’s speech apparently didn’t save the market too much.
• VIX Cash - 22.75, nearly 6-points lower than last show.
• VVIX - 81, 14-points lower than last show.
• VIX Options - ADV: 586k, Total 7.49m (5.71m Calls, 1.78m Puts)
• VXX - 50, 4-points higher than last show.
• TOP VIX POSITIONS - ALL CALLS - FIRST TIME IN AGES 331732 .VIX Feb 13th 37.5 C, chg +1807 244006 .VIX Jan 16th 30.0 C, chg +2028 200570 .VIX Jan 16th 35.0 C, chg -4014 166294 .VIX Jan 16th 32.5 C, chg +4868 161664 .VIX Feb 13th 40.0 C, chg +1486 160240 .VIX Apr 17th 45.0 C, no chg 153836 .VIX Apr 17th 70.0 C, chg +110 138616 .VIX Mar 19th 37.5 C, chg +10 135993 .VIX Jan 16th 24.0 C, chg -128 135869 .VIX Feb 13th 35.0 C, chg +3579 133744 .VIX Apr 17th 37.5 C, chg +534 132348 .VIX Jan 16th 15.0 P, chg -1 127371 .VIX Jan 16th 18.0 P, chg -6623 127070 .VIX Jan 16th 16.0 P, no chg 121718 .VIX Mar 19th 40.0 C, chg -4 114484 .VIX Jan 16th 25.0 C, chg +2019 114106 .VIX Jan 16th 20.0 P, chg +5384 102166 .VIX Mar 19th 35.0 C, chg +4 101408 .VIX Jan 16th 27.0 C, chg -563 100573 .VIX Jan 16th 37.5 C, chg +4451 Total 7.49m (5.71m Calls, 1.78m Puts)

AAPL VOL IN THE SPOTLIGHT

• AAPL CRUSHES MARKET WITH RARE REVISION TO GUIDANCE. BIGGEST SINGLE DAY SELLOFF IN APPLE IN OVER A DECADE

Those $AAPL Jan 150 puts that everyone sold in our last poll for $2 are now ITM. So our question is - what do you do now? Do you keep the stock around $148? Sell covered calls to "wheel out?" Roll or close the position? Let us know here.

• Happily buy $AAPL at $148
• Wheel out w/Covered Call
• Roll put Down
• Close position
• Vote Now at www.Twitter.com/Options

CRYSTAL BALL

Our mega 2019 Crystal Ball Prediction Contest is underway. Many of you have already participated. Here's a few of your predictions for the closing price of VIX in 2019:

• WHERE WILL VIX BE AT THE CLOSE OF 2019?

• ROCKLOBSTER- 16.01, 14.99

• Mark L. 17.10 - AVG FOR YEAR 17.60

• Greasy Meatball: CLOSE - 12.04, AVG. 14.05

• akatz000: 31.5. I think we've got one more down day to round out 2018. Then again, I had just started trading vol and was holding XIV on Volpocalypse, so what do I know

• Neil Wales - 13.3

• contango - 12.14

• Mail Man Dan - 12/31 closes at $257.50 on $SPY and $VIX at $22.50

• Brad Huff - 27.25

• Filip (FContangotrader) - 32.4

• Matt Thompson - 18.03

• Ahmed Sharif - Feels 3 cents too high to me

• Pat Hennessy - 21.52

• David Lincoln - 16.90

• Bill Luby - EOY 2019 $VIX guesstimate: 15.83

• Ophir Gottlieb - 25.42

• Andrew Nightingale - 32

• Andrew Giovinazzi - 16.1

• Trading Volatility - 24.3

• Steve Place: armageddon, end of world, plagues and locusts, markets close, 0 percent vol, checkmate

• Volatility Trading: 17.50 2019 average with a 14.50 VIX at year end

• Pat Hennessy, CMT: Proposing another form of this question. What will the average VIX (based on daily closes) be in 2019? Chart attached for reference of past years….My guess is 19.27...oh and dont hit me about "average VIX" issues

• Zaphod: I wasnt sure what they meant and like this way. Have to drop in q1 from here, shenanigans/earnings, Mueller, settling/boredom....dont think we spend a lot of time below 16....so 21.35 as some spikes weigh on the average. No clue in reality ofc.

• filip: Close your eyes and BTFD

• Andrew Nightingale, CFA: 32

• Jay Soloff: First half of 2019 average = 28, second half =16, but I think the lower prints outweigh the higher prints so we end up with an average like 18.5. Do not question the rigorous maths I used to come up with that number. It's proprietary and may involve an abacus and rye toast.

• David Lincoln: 16.90, 17.9 for the average…

• Trading Volatility: 24.3...Low of 17.6 and high of 63.2

• Barton: Great chart. My guess is 25% between 2007 and 2008 levels. 17.54 X.75+32.69 X .25 = 21.33….I would have guessed half way between 2007 and 2008, if we did not have the systematic short vol crowd.

• Matt Thompson, CFA: 18.03….Agree that's a better metric. End of year, you are really just guessing what is gonna happen in Dec...My 2019 average guess is 24.88

• f ili p: $vix 32.4

• Contangoking: 12.14

 

• Next week VIX Pick:
• Mark L. - 19.25
• Mark S. - 17.50