Stocks to Watch - What to Watch in the Markets this Week
Oct 9, 2023
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Barron's senior managing editor and deputy editor discuss the impact of war in the Middle East on the oil and equities markets, outlook for Q3 earnings, and the Fed. They also analyze the surprising jobs report, effects of Exxon's bid for Pioneer, Bank of America's earnings report and bond holdings, future of electric car stocks, and implications for inflation.
The Middle East conflict creates uncertainty in the stock market, potentially impacting the anticipated October rally and year-end performance.
Oil can serve as a hedge asset during adverse events and higher inflation, providing a counterbalance to market declines.
Deep dives
Financial Fallout of Middle East Hostilities
The podcast discusses the possible financial impact of renewed hostilities in the Middle East. Despite the weekend attack on Israel, the market reaction has been relatively muted, with minor losses in major indices and moderate increases in oil and gold prices. The market appears cautious, holding its breath and waiting to see how the situation develops. While previous conflicts, such as the Ukraine war, had clearer anticipated outcomes, the suddenness and uncertainty of this conflict create a greater level of market caution.
Oil Market Impact
The podcast explores the impact of the Middle East conflict on the oil market. Oil prices have experienced a bounce but have not reached significant highs. The futures curve indicates that the market has not yet priced in higher oil prices for the long term. However, there is growing recognition that oil can serve as a hedge asset amidst higher inflation and geopolitical uncertainties. It is suggested that having exposure to oil, rather than treasuries, can counterbalance market declines during adverse events.
Uncertainty and the Stock Market
The podcast discusses the potential impact of the Middle East conflict on the stock market. While there were expectations for an October rally and a positive end to the year, the conflict introduces uncertainty. The market's reaction to the conflict has caused doubts about the anticipated rally. However, some analysts remain cautiously bullish, considering the strong earnings forecast for the third quarter. The earnings season could shift the market focus towards individual company performance and potentially drive a market rebound.
Earnings Season Expectations
The podcast looks ahead to earnings season and provides a general overview of expectations. Analysts predict a small increase in year-over-year earnings, although some strategists point out that forecasts have remained flat for the past few months, setting a high bar for companies. While concerns exist regarding the impact of weight loss drugs on the packaged food and soft drink industry, solid earnings are expected from companies such as Pepsi. The performance of airlines, including Delta, will be closely watched, with potential slowdowns in ticket sales due to rising prices and uncertain travel sentiment.
Barron's senior managing editor Lauren R. Rublin and deputy editor Ben Levisohn discuss the impact of war in the Middle East on the oil and equities markets, the outlook for third-quarter earnings, and what's ahead for the Fed.
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