Talking Geopolitics George Friedman on Putin's NATO Provocations and Poland's Emerging Power
Sep 23, 2025
Join George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures and a seasoned geopolitical forecaster, as he delves into Putin's provocative airspace violations and their implications for NATO and Ukraine negotiations. Friedman argues these actions are strategic attempts to pressure NATO while revealing Russia's military weaknesses. He also discusses Poland's rise to power, shaped by its geography and historical role as a buffer state. With insight into Poland's military evolution and its strategic partnership with the U.S., Friedman outlines its potential role in negotiating peace in Ukraine.
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Provocations As Strategic Signaling
- George Friedman argues the three NATO airspace incursions were deliberate signals, not mere navigational errors.
- He says Russia aims to frighten and split NATO by projecting strength it does not fully possess.
Projecting Power Despite Weakness
- Friedman says Putin has few good options and must project military power despite limited capabilities.
- He views risky gestures as attempts to convince NATO Russia might act irrationally and so split Western resolve.
Intrusions As Negotiation Tactics
- Airspace intrusions were limited and underwhelming, more signal than operational threat.
- Friedman interprets them as negotiation tactics to improve Russia's bargaining posture without escalating to full conflict.
