The Big View Why technological progress is so hard to predict
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Sep 16, 2025 Carl Benedikt Frey, a leading expert on AI and work from the University of Oxford, discusses the unpredictable nature of technological progress. He examines how historical transformations, like the Industrial Revolution, inform our current understanding of AI. Frey delves into the societal reactions to technological advancements, contrasting optimism with modern anxieties. He highlights the paradox of AI innovation alongside stagnant productivity, and explores the implications for employment as automation reshapes job markets, raising concerns for the future.
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New Industries Drive Big Gains
- Major technological shifts often create new industries rather than only automating old jobs.
- The automotive and electrification revolutions produced entirely new supplier chains and services, expanding employment overall.
Invention Doesn’t Equal Instant Impact
- Inventions rarely lead to immediate economic impact; adoption often lags by decades.
- Frey argues progress is not inevitable and requires institutional and complementary change to matter.
AT&T, The Internet And Institutional Paths
- Carl Frey uses the internet and AT&T breakup as a thought experiment about institutional conditions for adoption.
- He contrasts centralized Soviet planning that funded only state priorities with decentralized US finance that let many trajectories be tried.
