The Intelligence from The Economist What’s it good for? Putin’s Ukraine calculus
Jan 25, 2022
Shashank Joshi, defense editor at The Economist, dives into Vladimir Putin's strategic maneuvers regarding Ukraine, analyzing the implications of a military buildup and potential NATO responses. Sarah Burke, Bureau Chief for Mexico, discusses the country's unique approach to handling the Omicron variant amid ongoing pandemic challenges. Together, they also explore the controversial culture of workplace drinking, highlighting both the pros and cons in today's evolving work environment.
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Potential Outcomes of Russian Aggression
- Russia's military buildup on the Ukrainian border presents a range of potential outcomes, from psychological pressure to full-scale invasion.
- A full invasion would have seismic consequences, including sanctions, cyberattacks, and economic disruption.
Putin's Motives
- Putin's motivations for the military buildup could be domestically driven.
- A constant state of hostility with the West may legitimize his increasingly dictatorial rule.
Challenges of Regime Change
- Installing a pro-Russian government in Ukraine might seem like a less drastic alternative to war, but it presents challenges for Russia.
- Maintaining control after troop withdrawal would be difficult, potentially leading to an open-ended occupation.