In this engaging conversation, Patrick O’Shaughnessy, a savvy investor and host of the Invest Like the Best podcast, joins Ted Seides to discuss his legendary bet with Warren Buffett. They explore the nuances of hedge fund performance versus the S&P 500, shedding light on the lessons learned from the wager. Topics include the challenges of defining skill in investing, the evolving landscape of hedge funds, and the significance of personal connections at Berkshire Hathaway meetings. Expect insights on market dynamics and the impact of emotions on investment strategies!
The podcast explores the significant bet made with Warren Buffett, highlighting strategic thinking around hedge fund performance versus the S&P 500.
It emphasizes the disparity between reported investment returns and actual investor experiences, underscoring the importance of patience and discipline in achieving gains.
Permanent capital's advantage allows for long-term investment strategies, enabling investors to manage market fluctuations more effectively.
Deep dives
10 East Investment Platform
10 East is an investment platform that enables sophisticated investors to access private markets, similar to a family office experience without the associated costs. Founded by Michael LaFell, who has significant experience in the investment arena, the platform allows members to co-invest in opportunities across private credit, real estate, niche ventures, and private equity. The team conducts thorough research and monitors investments continuously, ensuring institutional-level management. This approach aims to provide members with exclusive access to investment opportunities typically unavailable through traditional channels.
The Bet with Warren Buffett
A noteworthy aspect discussed involves a long-standing bet made between the speaker and Warren Buffett, which contrasts the performance of a group of hedge funds against the S&P 500. The speaker expresses the strategic thinking that led to making the bet in the first place, particularly based on market valuations and projected performance outcomes. The conversation delves into the lessons learned over the years related to hedge fund fees and their relative performance during market fluctuations. It emphasizes that while high fees can hinder performance, the actual outcomes can vary significantly based on timing and market conditions.
Investment Philosophy and Market Insights
Throughout the episode, various investment philosophies are explored, including the merits of active versus passive management. The speaker critiques the oversimplified narrative of the S&P 500’s dominance by considering factors like market timing and human behavior's impact on investment performance. Discussions also cover the cyclical nature of asset management, highlighting how money flows can affect active managers’ ability to outperform passive investments. The episode suggests a need for a nuanced understanding of investment strategies beyond simplistic comparisons of returns.
Behavioral Finance and Investor Returns
The episode addresses the significant disparity between reported investment returns and actual investor experiences, often influenced by market volatility and emotional decisions. Many investors fail to hold their positions long enough to realize the intended gains, particularly during downturns like those experienced in 2008. This behavioral gap reveals how patience and discipline are crucial to achieving favorable outcomes in investing. Establishing awareness around these pitfalls is essential for all types of investors to secure long-term gains.
Permanent Capital and Long-term Investment Strategies
A key theme discussed is the concept of permanent capital, which allows investors to maintain ownership without the pressure of short-term returns. The advantages of long-term holding strategies are emphasized, pointing out that firms with permanent capital can make companies more appealing to sellers looking for favorable terms. By focusing on lasting relationships and strategic decision-making, such investors can weather market fluctuations better. The conversation encourages an exploration of investment frameworks that prioritize long-term growth potential over immediate gains.
Today’s show is a little different from my ongoing series of conversations with Capital Allocators. As you probably know, about 9½ years ago I made a bet with a certain Oracle, in Omaha, that pitted the performance of a group of five hedge fund of funds against the S&P 500. In this year’s annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Warren wrote extensively about his views. You can find that letter at www.berkshirehathway.com/letters. Now I haven’t said a lot about the bet, although fairly often I’m asked how it came about, why I made the bet, what I really think about hedge funds and the market, and of course, who's winning. I thought long and hard about whether to share my views publicly, and had been leaning towards staying out of the limelight. But my guest on Episode 2 of this podcast, André Perold, convinced me that I should share the many other investment lessons the public can learn from this exercise. I thought a podcast would be a perfect venue to discuss my thoughts, so I asked my friend Patrick O’Shaughnessy to discuss the bet with me, and that conversation follows. Before we dive in, I thought it might help to let you know where to find answers to some of those common questions I’m asked. For starters, Carol Loomis, the legendary and recently retired Fortune columnist, wrote a wonderful piece called “Buffett’s Big Bet” back in 2008 that described in detail how the bet came to pass. You can find her piece at www.capitalallocatorspodcast.com/bet. On that same page, you can find links to some of my written thoughts – both at the time of the bet’s inception and two years ago. Next week, I’ll add another link with some concluding thoughts.