#243 - Trump's Triumph: What the Election Means for America and the World

Nov 8, 2024

Jacob and Rob dissect Donald Trump's unexpected electoral win and its ripple effects on the economy and markets. They examine the mixed sentiments in the US and Europe, noting investor reactions and the volatility of risk assets. The discussion highlights the steel industry's influential role amidst market shifts and scrutinizes public perceptions that impact decision-making. Additionally, they delve into the political upheaval in Germany, exploring how changing dynamics may alter European responses to American policies.

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ANECDOTE

Unexpected Vote

A Reaganite Republican, finding no desirable candidate, voted for Jill Stein.
This anecdote highlights voter dissatisfaction and unconventional choices.

INSIGHT

Irrational Markets

Market reactions to Trump's victory appear irrational, driven by vibes rather than fundamentals.
Examples include First Solar's drop despite being a potential beneficiary of tariffs and steel stocks' surge despite existing tariffs.

INSIGHT

Market Sentiment

The market's response to Trump's win, like the surge in bank stocks, lacks clear explanation.
This suggests a rotation driven by sentiment (vibes) rather than concrete policy expectations.

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Jacob and Rob dive into Donald Trump's surprising victory and its potential impact on various sectors, including the economy and the markets. They discuss the prevailing mood in both the US and Europe, highlighting a sense of resignation to Trump's return among many citizens. They explore the market reactions following the election results, noting the volatility in risk assets and the contrasting performance of renewable energy stocks and traditional industries like steel. The conversation also touches on the evolving political landscape in Germany, where the government is facing significant challenges, potentially reshaping Europe's response to US policy under Trump. Throughout the discussion, there is a critical examination of the term "vibes" and its influence on public sentiment and market behavior, raising questions about how perceptions can drive decisions in uncertain times.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:16) – Rob reaction

(07:45) – Market reaction

(30:20) – U.S./China

(54:00) – Bitcoin

(56:15) – Germany and Europe

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

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